Powder Forecast – Friday, February 6th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 2/7 = 0 – 1”
Sun 2/8 = 0”
Mon 2/9 = 0”
Tue 2/10 = 5 – 7” (H2O = 0.50” – 0.65”)
Wed 2/11 = 5 – 7” (H2O = 0.50” – 0.65”)
Thu 2/12 = 0 – 1”
Fri 2/13 = 0”
Sat – Mon 2/14 – 2/16 = 15 – 24”
February Snowfall = 0”
February Forecast = 40 – 55”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 2/8 and Sun 2/9 – No snowfall expected both days.
Mon 2/10 – Dry through most of the afternoon, then snowfall develops late PM/evening and continues overnight. Accumulations 5 – 7” at Main, 8”+ up top.
Tue 2/11 – Snowfall likely redevelops during the day, tapers off overnight. Accumulations 5 – 7” at Main, 8”+ up top.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows a weak area of low pressure centered in western Nevada and another off the Baja Coast with high pressure centered west and east of the state. That weak low over western Nevada is initiating some flurries this afternoon, and flurries or light snow showers will end this evening. No meaningful accumulation is expected.
Weak high pressure (image below) rebuilds over the weekend for a return of fair/dry weather. That should last into Monday before a short-wave trough moves southward into central CA on Monday night and early Tuesday (image below). That trough/low will be followed by another one dropping southward off the PacNW on Wednesday.
Two periods of snowfall are expected, with only a brief break on early Wednesday morning. Snowfall should start late Monday PM, continue overnight, briefly end early Tuesday, then redevelop Tuesday morning and continue through the day for storm riders. Snowfall should taper off and end Tuesday overnight or early Wednesday, although there could be some flurries or light snow showers Wednesday PM.
QPF from the models is consistent across ECMWF (image below), Canadian (two images below), and ECM EPS (three images below), all of which show around an inch of liquid accumulation for both storms. The GFS is the outlier and has double what the other models are forecasting and over 2” liquid (three images below). Forecast follows the ECM EPS with about 5-7” with each storm and around a foot total at Main and 15” up top.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance is now close enough that the anticipated larger change in the weather pattern induced by a combination of the MJO moving into phase 2/3 and the SPV in weak/neutral strengths. More on that later, but it looks like almost a certainty that there will be powder conditions for the Presidents’ Day weekend.
There will be a brief break at the end of next week as high pressure builds into the state for a day or two. The models agree that a deep trough of low pressure (ECM below) will develop over the West Coast, and both the polar and southern branches of the jet stream will move into CA. What the models don’t agree on is how far west the trough will retrograde into the eastern Pacific, and whether associated moist orographic upslope flow develops into the Sierra. The ECM EPS (two images below) favors a less over-water trajectory versus both the ECM and GFS models, although it is still quite deep.
Those differences show up in the QPF with both the latest deterministic runs of the ECMWF (image below) and the GFS (two images below) showing about 2” liquid for the event or around two feet of snowfall at Main. The ECM EPS (three images below) has about 1.5” liquid or 15”+ of snowfall, a notable difference. The forecast blends deterministic models with ECMWF EPS and deep powder by late weekend.
The super long range guidance heading into the last week of the month then develops a broad longwave trough that extends across most of North America (images below). The transition to this pattern fits the lagged days 10 -14+ averaged 500-mb anomaly composite (three images below) from the paper issued by Green and Furtado 2019, a good read on a rainy day, and discussed many times this season. The Presidents’ Day 500-mb pattern (image in paragraph above) fits the chart (c) in the composite with a neutral SPV and the MJO in phase 2. The SPV is forecast to become weak just after mid-month, and the overall teleconnection pattern looks to shift to chart (d), similar to the pattern shown above.
That pattern could bring a storm or two to CA, but it is the northwest jet stream flow, which usually doesn’t have much available moisture. That is probably why the ECM extended is showing mostly average precipitation for the last week of the month (image below). It has a similar pattern at the start of March (two images below). Average precipitation means a chance for powder days. After a 30-day-plus dry spell, welcome powder days are coming very soon. WG
