Mammoth Mountain Weather & Discussion
Almost Daily Weather for Mammoth Mountain and the Southern Eastern Sierra
2-9-2026 @ 5 AM – Currently at the Top of Mammoth Mountain, the temperature is 22 degrees with a SW wind at 20 mph gusting to 26 mph. Down at Main Lodge, the temp is 29 degrees with a WSW at 2 to 7 MPH.
The base at the Snow Study site at the 9,000-foot level is 51 inches, with 92 inches at the Summit. The snow surface is hard pack in all non-groomed areas. Watch yourself if you’re out hiking or sledding in the snow or skiing or riding steeps.
Mammoth Mountain Weather: Today, expect mostly cloudy skies with some breaks at times, with a slight chance of a snowflake or two. The temperature at the Main Lodge will be in the mid to upper 30s to the lower 40s with a SW wind around 5 -10 MPH. On the mid and upper mountain, temperatures will be in the mid 30s, with S to SW winds at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph possible.
On Tuesday, expect cloudy skies with snow showers late in the day, turning to moderate snowfall Tuesday night. Both the EU and the HRRR hold off on accumulating snow till after the ski day is over. Temps will be in the mid 30s with increasing moderate SW winds during the day.
Mammoth Weather Discussion
5:30 AM – Good Monday morning. After a long dry spell, it looks like the weather pattern is finally set to flip for a couple of weeks, with Mammoth moving into a more active stretch featuring two troughy periods.
The first system from Tuesday night into Wednesday should bring at best moderate snowfall. The second low, showing up in the longer-range week two guidance, looks more interesting, with the potential to linger and send several fronts across the mountain. That type of pattern would bring feet of snow and multiple powder days, but it remains in the fantasy range for now, so expectations should stay in check.
In the near term, the ridge of high pressure currently over the area will slide east as a low-pressure system moves just off the California coast. Models show this low meandering due west of Mammoth on Tuesday, then shifting southwest by midweek. As it does so, snowfall tapers off, with the system exiting by Wednesday night.
Based on this morning’s data, adjusted for Mammoth Mountain, snowfall from the first system looks to be in the 6 to 12 inch range, with a chance of up to 16-18 inches at the Top. Snow ratios are expected to fall in the 10 to 12 to one range and could trend slightly higher. This snow will be falling on a very firm base, so conditions will favor lighter turns.
Winds will increase during the storm, blowing out of the southwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range around Main Lodge. Mid and upper mountain winds will be stronger, with gusts occasionally reaching 45 to 65 mph or higher.
Thursday and Friday should bring a break in the action as high pressure briefly returns and bluebird skies move back into the area.
The next system in the Fantasy long range outlook is then expected to move in by the Saturday night/Sunday morning period. That is a deep low that models have hanging out for several days, if not all week. The exact path of the low and how long it ends up hanging around will determine how much snowfall Mammoth gets.
The current forecast for the second system indicates several feet of snow between the 15th and the 21st of the month.
Since that system is still a week out, trusting in any outcome this far out is vanity. I’m sure the hypesters will be posting otherwise on social media. My advice is tune those clickbait people off.
Ski ya later, Snowman
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❓ Top Mammoth Weather Questions (from the Snowman)
When does Mammoth usually get its first snowfall?
Light snow can fall in late September, but consistent snowfall usually begins in late October or early November. Opening Day typically lands between November 10 and Thanksgiving, depending on storm activity and snowmaking.
How does the ENSO pattern affect Mammoth’s late fall and winter weather?
ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) plays a big role in Sierra storm patterns. El Niño winters often bring warmer, wetter storms. La Niña typically favors colder, backloaded seasons with more snow from February through April. Neutral years are the wildcards with high variability.
What is 500mb height and why does it matter?
500mb height maps show atmospheric pressure around 18,000 feet — a critical layer for tracking storm tracks, ridging, and jet stream placement. Watching 500mb patterns helps forecast Mammoth’s incoming storms and long-range trends.
What are the PNA and PDO, and how do they affect Mammoth weather?
The PNA (Pacific-North American Pattern) influences western U.S. ridging and troughing. A negative PNA favors cold, stormy setups. The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) affects sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific — a negative PDO often aligns with enhanced storm delivery into California during winter.
👉 Want more answers? Check out the full Mammoth Weather FAQ – 50 Expert Answers to learn more about storms, snow, winds, and long-range patterns from a trusted local source.
Author Bio: Steve Taylor, The Mammoth Snowman. Over the last 40+ years, Steve has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions.
Dr. George, Don Marcelin, Howard Sheckter, and Ted Schlaepfer were his weather mentors at that time. Steve used to hang out with Howard in the Weather War room in the early ’90s, getting first-hand knowledge of Mammoth Weather from the (The Dweeb) himself.
Steve has spent countless hours reading, studying, and watching weather discussions from the NWS and multiple Private Weather Forecasters. He is a long-time member of WeatherBell, Weather West, and AccuWeather Pro. Disclaimer: Steve is a hobbyist forecaster with over 35 years of experience reporting recreational weather and travel reports for the Mammoth Lakes area.