Powder Forecast – Tuesday, February 10th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 2/11 = 10 – 12” (H2O = 1.00” – 1.25”)**4
Thu 2/12 = 3 – 5” (H2O = 0.25” – 0.50”)**3
Fri 2/13 = 0”
Sat 2/14 = 0”
Sun 2/15 = 0”
Mon 2/16 = 5 – 10”
Tue 2/17 = 12 – 24”
Wed – Fri 2/18 – 2/20 = 30 – 45”
February Snowfall = 6”
February Forecast = 80 – 100”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 2/10 – Snowfall during the morning tapers off during the afternoon and ends in the evening. Accumulations 3 – 5” at Main by Thursday AM, 6”+ up Top.
Thu 2/11 – No snowfall expected except for a chance for PM flurries.
Fri 2/13 and Sat 2/14 – No snowfall expected both days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below), this afternoon, shows a weather system currently positioned just off the Central CA coast. The storm will move inland tonight and tomorrow and then mostly remain stationary over central CA while dissipating Wednesday night and into Thursday.
QPF from the models has increased since the last post, with the GFS model the wettest at over an inch (image below), and the latest ECM run only slightly less (two images below). The ECM EPS is also showing around an inch (three images below), while the Canadian is the outlier at about half an inch.
Forecast leans toward the wetter GFS solution with over a foot at Main and 15”+ up top by Wednesday evening when the snowfall is expected to end. Most of the snowfall will occur tonight and into midday Wednesday.
A weak high-pressure system (image below) will build into the state for the rest of the week and into the weekend, bringing fair to partly cloudy weather, except for a chance of flurries on Thursday afternoon. Temperatures should be seasonable and winter-like for great conditions.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance now indicates a major storm cycle for next week and possibly into the following weekend. Details still need to be sorted out, but it looks like there’s a good chance of a lot of dry-type powder next week under insane powder conditions. Drier weather is favored to return for the last part of the month and into early March.
The ECMWF model (image below) moves a deep upper-level trough southward from the Gulf of Alaska to just off the West Coast and CA on Sunday. The GFS model (image below) places it slightly farther south; otherwise, it is quite similar. This solution is well supported by the GFS ensemble mean (three images below) and the ECM EPS.
This trough will move the initial cold front southward into CA on Sunday night and Monday for the first round of heavy snowfall. It will not a be super cold storm with snow levels seasonable and in the 5000 foot range with amounts probably over a foot by Tuesday.
A very deep trailing upper-level short-wave trough will dig southward on early Tuesday per the ECM model (image below). The GFS ensemble (two images below) supports this solution for the most part, although the ECM run is deeper/stronger with the trough and also a little farther off the coast for better southwest upslope flow. The ECM EPS is in between the GEFS and ECM solutions.
Regardless, this is a setup for a major Sierra winter snowstorm, with unseasonably low snow levels across the range and deep powder at higher elevations. Snow levels may drop to 3000 feet or lower by Tuesday/Wednesday as the coldest air filters into the state. Those low snow levels will also mean cold, dry Rocky Mountain-like powder by mid-week.
The GFS ensemble (ECM EPS too) keeps the longwave trough in place through the end of next week, with an ensemble suggesting another strong short-wave around Thursday next week. That is what the latest ECM run is showing (image below), and it would mean another round of heavy snowfall.
The QPF from the models is impressive for next week, and it is also being cold type storms. Both the ECMWF (image below) and the GFS (two images below) show around 5” liquid for Main Lodge. The ECM EPS (three images below) has about 4” liquid if you subtract the inch for this week. At high snow ratios, that could mean 5-6 feet of snowfall at Main. The details will change as we get closer, hopefully the models won’t back off too much, if at all,
The super long range guidance suggests the longwave trough may remain in place through the following weekend and into the next week. Both the ECM EPS (image below) and GFS ensemble (two images below) are similar, with the GFS slightly deeper and farther southward with the jet stream.
Either way, it would allow for more storms to drop southward from the Gulf of Alaska and into the state for more snowfall and powder days. The ECM EPS (image below) is not that impressive with the QPF, but does have enough for at least low-end powder conditions at times, especially after all the new snowfall.
A pattern change is then favored for the last part of the month, with the jet stream lifting northward and high pressure rebuilding over the state for a return of fair/dry weather. The ECM super long range is showing below normal precipitation (image below) and is not favoring much change over the first part of March. There will be plenty of powder days before then; the time is now. WG
