Powder Forecast – Friday, February 13th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 2/14 = 0”
Sun 2/15 = 0”
Mon 2/16 = 0 – 1”
Tue 2/17 = 25 – 32” (H2O = 2.50” – 3.00”)**3
Wed 2/18 = 25 – 32” (H2O = 2.00” – 2.50”)**3
Thu 2/19 = 6 – 9”
Fri 2/20 = 3 – 6”
Sat – Mon 2/21 – 2/23 = 1 – 4”
February Snowfall = 24”
February Forecast = 100 – 120”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 2/14 and Sun 2/15 – No snowfall expected both days.
Mon 2/16 – Snowfall develops early morning and becomes heavy during the afternoon and continues, heavy at times, overnight into Tuesday. Strong winds during the afternoon. Accumulations 25 – 32” at Main by Tuesday AM, 36”+ up top.
Tue 2/17 – Snowfall continues, heavy at times, during the day and overnight. Strong winds. Accumulations 25 – 32” at Main by Wednesday AM, 40”+ up top.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below), this afternoon, shows high pressure has built into the state for fair and dry weather in Mammoth. A weather system entering the eastern Pacific will spread clouds over the area through the weekend, but no snowfall until Presidents’ Day.
The expected change in the weather pattern starts Monday with the models in agreement that the first upper-level low (image below) will move ashore during the day with a trailing strong/cold upper low positioned off the Pacific Northwest coast.
The cold front associated with the low will produce heavy snowfall by afternoon, with snow levels starting at around 7000 feet in the morning and lowering to around 5500 feet as the snowfall intensifies. Snow levels will then fall to near 4000 feet by early Tuesday as the strong/cold upper low moves ashore.
That deep upper-level trough will be positioned across CA on Tuesday (image below) and is a classic set-up for a major Sierra snowstorm with unseasonably low snow levels and the polar jet stream (blue arrow) centered into the Central Sierra. That system will slowly rotate across the state through Wednesday, bringing a prolonged period of heavy snowfall in Mammoth, with one final trailing short-wave moving through on Thursday (two images below).
Snow levels will drop to near 2000-2500 feet by early Wednesday and last into Thursday, and that is when ratios will get near or above 15”-20″:1, and the really cold/dry powder will fall. The ECM model shows snowfall at sea level in some areas of CA (image below). Snowfall on Monday will be typical Sierra conditions, and Tuesday will be drier than normal, but not as dry as Colorado or Utah, which will occur during the latter part of the storm.
QPF from the models for the week is impressive, with the GFS model at over 5” liquid (image below), the ECM around 4” (two images below), the NBM at almost 6” (three images below), and the ECM EPS (4 images below), similar to the ECM 12z run at about 4” liquid. Forecast leans toward the wetter solutions with about 5”of liquid for the event and about five feet of snowfall at Main and 6-7 feet up top in the powder fields.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance indicates the storm cycle will continue into the following week before ending toward the end of the month. The fantasy range guidance is saying the dry weather will then continue through the first part of March, with storms possibly returning over the second half of March.
The ECM model moves a weaker short-wave through central CA around next Saturday (image below), but does not produce any meaningful snowfall in Mammoth. Could just be an increase in wind for wind buff if all the powder is tracked out by then, although an inch or two can not be ruled out.
The longer-range solutions from the ECM model this morning indicate the next chance for significant snowfall will be over the following week, when another strong short-wave trough moves into the state (image below). That solution is well supported by the GFS ensemble (images below), which shows a long-wave trough along the West Coast and a wave moving into CA around that time frame.
The ECM EPS is showing around 2” of liquid (image below) for that time frame, which could result in another two feet of snowfall on the mountain. The GFS ensemble shows similar amounts, whereas the Canadian ensemble has slightly lower amounts. Thus, there is a good chance for more deep powder and powder days into the middle of the last week of the month.
Enjoy the powder. WG
