Powder Forecast – Tuesday, February 17th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 2/18 = 23 – 32” (H2O = 2.25” – 3.00”)**3
Thu 2/19 = 2 – 3” (H2O = 0.10” – 0.15”)**3
Fri 2/20 = 10 – 15” (H2O = 0.65” – 0.90”)**2
Sat 2/21= 0”
Sun 2/22 = 0”
Mon 2/23 = 6 – 10”
Tue 2/24 = 9 – 15”
Wed – Fri 2/25 – 2/27 = 6 – 12”
February Snowfall = 51”
February Forecast = 110 – 130”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 2/18 – Snowfall tapers off during the early morning, followed by scattered snow showers during the day and night. Accumulations 2 – 3” at Main by Thursday AM, 3”+ up top.
Thu 2/19 – Snowfall redevelops during the morning, heavy at times, tapers off, and ends overnight. Accumulations 10 – 15” at Main by Friday AM, 16”+ up top.
Fri 2/20 and Sat 2/21– No snowfall expected both days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows a deep and cold upper-level trough moving into the West Coast and CA, and a strong front positioned across central CA. That front will move southward overnight for a period of heavy snowfall and strong winds. There should be another two feet plus at Main by dawn tomorrow.
That deep upper-level trough will move through the area by early Wednesday (image below) and snowfall should taper off to scattered snow showers during the day that will probably continue at times into the night. Snowfall will then increase Thursday during the day as a trailing cold upper level trough moves into the region (two images below) before snowfall tapers off and ends Thursday night. Another foot is possible at Main.
Snow levels will drop to near 2000 feet by early tomorrow and only rise a bit for the storm on Thursday. The snow tonight and early tomorrow will be on the dry side, but snow ratios Thursday should be in the 12-15”:1” range or higher and super fluffy and dry.
QPF from the models for the week is impressive, with the GFS model the wettest at around 4” liquid (image below), the ECM around 3” (two images below), the NBM at almost 4” (three images below), and the Canadian the driest at about 2” liquid. Forecast leans toward the ECM/GFS blend with about 3-4” liquid for both storms and about three more feet of snowfall at Main and 4 feet up top in the powder fields. Dry weather returns Friday and continues Saturday.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance favors the storm cycle continuing into next week, then tapering off toward the end of the month or early March. The fantasy range guidance is split about the first half of March, with one model showing dry weather and the other a chance for powder days.
The longer-range solutions from the ECM model this morning say the next chance for significant snowfall may be as early as Sunday (image below), with a better chance by Monday or Tuesday (two images below) when the trough is forecast to move ashore.
That solution is well supported by the GFS ensemble (images below), which shows a long-wave trough along the West Coast on Sunday and the trough shifting inland around Tuesday. Thus, snowfall may start sometime on Sunday, but I would not be surprised if it is shifted to Sunday night or Monday/Tuesday, since it will be a closed upper low rather than an open wave.
The ECM EPS is showing around 4” of liquid (image below) for the Sunday through Wednesday time frame, and that could result in another two to three feet of snowfall on the mountain. This would not be cold type snow, however, but warmer base type snowfall, as there could be an AR associated with the storm in the southwest jet stream flow.
The 11-15 day pattern is still up in the air, with the GFS ensemble (image below) more bullish on the longwave trough along the West Coast remaining farther south than the ECM EPS (two images below). That model has the jet stream farther north and more westward. QPF from the ECM EPS is minimal for that period and less than half an inch of liquid (three images below).
Dry weather is then favored to return over the first half of March, with below normal precipitation forecast, says the ECM EPS 45-day forecast. However, the GFS extended model is not as dry and has slightly above or normal precipitation for the first half of March (image below). Both models have the MJO doing something completely distinct, which probably accounts for the differences. Enjoy the powder, hope they can open the mountain safely. WG
