Powder Forecast – Tuesday, February 24th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 2/25 = 0”
Thu 2/26 = 0”
Fri 2/27 = 0”
Sat 2/28 = 0”
Sun 3/1 = 0 – 1”
Mon 3/2 = 1 – 2”
Tue 3/3 = 0 – 2”
Wed – Fri 3/4 – 3/6 = 0 – 1”
February Snowfall = 87”
February Forecast = 87”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 2/25 – Any rain at Main ends during the morning with snowfall from just above McCoy to the Top, ending as well, no accumulation expected.
Thu 2/26 through Sat 2/28– No snowfall expected all days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows lots of clouds streaming into the West Coast and Northern/Central CA associated with a weak atmospheric river. The plume of moisture will shift southward tonight, dissipating as it reaches Mammoth.
For once, I am thankful that the model guidance has significantly backed off on the liquid forecast for Mammoth, as snow levels are still forecast to remain above 10,000 feet. The latest ECM forecast calls for just under a tenth of an inch of liquid (image below), and the GFS is similar. Thus, hopefully, it will only be a period of light rain or nothing at all late tonight or early tomorrow on the mountain.
High pressure (image below) then builds strongly across the state for the rest of the week, bringing fair and dry weather. Temperatures will also trend warmer, and spring conditions are likely on most of the mountain, especially the lower parts and Eagle/Ch. 9 side, which will probably get quite slushy during the afternoon. Only slightly cooler weather is expected on Saturday.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance favors mostly dry weather through the first part of March, after a chance of light snowfall late this weekend. There is a slight chance of snowfall around or during the second week of the month, but a better chance in the latter half of March.
The parent low associated with the current pattern will finally move ashore around Sunday or Monday (image below), with the exact details of landfall still quite uncertain. The GFS model has it deep enough and close enough to the Sierra for about 0.75”of liquid in Mammoth (two images below) or about six inches of snowfall.
The latest ECM run, though, is not particularly favorable and shows only about a tenth of an inch (image below). That amount is well supported by the ECM EPS (two images below), which shows similar amounts. Thus, an inch or two of snowfall is certainly possible Sunday/Monday, but we will have to wait on the GFS solution until we get closer.
The GFS is forecasting an inside slider-type system to move through the Sierra around mid-week (image below), which could produce light snow showers or flurries, along with breezy winds and colder temps. The ECM is similar and has about an inch of snowfall. Right now, the best guess is dust on the crust.
The longer-range fantasy guidance from the ECM model shows a deeper trough moving southward from the Gulf of Alaska late over the following weekend (image below). It has about 0.75” of liquid (two images below) that would result in enough snowfall for powder conditions. Hopefully, the deterministic run is onto something, as the ECM EPS is not favoring big amounts of precipitation right now for that period at about 0.20” (three images below).
The guidance generally favors a longwave trough across the interior West in the 11-15 day timeframe, with the ECM EPS (image below) a bit deeper than the GFS ensemble (two images below). That pattern supports inside slider-type storms with fair/seasonable weather in between passages.
Those systems could produce light snowfall, but unless they move farther south and west, as in the latest ECM run, they are moisture-starved and usually don’t produce deep snowfall.
Lastly, the extended forecast remains mixed for the mid-month period, with the ECM model (image below) much drier than the GFS (two images below), which shows average precipitation for the period.
It is probably the MJO forecast again, with the GEFS favoring a strong event emerging from phase 6 into 7 through mid-month, while the ECM favors a low-amplitude signal, though a handful of ensembles share the GFS solution.
WG
