Powder Forecast – Friday, February 27th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 2/28 = 0”
Sun 3/1 = 0”
Mon 3/2 = 1 – 3” (H20 = 0.15” – 0.30”)**2
Tue 3/3 = 0 – 1”
Wed 3/4 = 0”
Thu 3/5 = 0 – 1
Fri 3/6 = 0”
Sat – Mon 3/7 – 3/9 = 0 – 2”
February Snowfall = 87”
February Forecast = 87”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 2/28– No snowfall expected.
Sun 3/1 – Dry during the morning, then a chance for light snowfall starting late afternoon, becoming likely overnight. Accumulations 1 – 3” at Main by Monday AM, around ~3” up top.
Mon 3/2 – Light snowfall changes to snow showers during the day, ending evening hours. Accumulations 0 – 1” at Main by Tuesday AM, around 1” up top.
Tue 3/3– No snowfall expected.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows some high clouds streaming into Central CA. Otherwise, a strong ridge of high pressure is over the state, resulting in fair weather and spring conditions on the mountain. That ridge will mostly hold in place through Saturday, with continued dry weather, though temps will be slightly cooler by a few degrees.
The low-pressure system that is currently quasi-stationary well off the California coast will finally move eastward and ashore around Sunday night and/or Monday (image below). It will move ashore in a much-weakened state, and how much, if any, snowfall occurs in Mammoth is still a bit uncertain, except that it will not be a big storm.
The GFS model is by far the wettest at around 0.40” (image below), liquid or 4” of snowfall, with the latest ECM run the driest at around 0.05” (image below), or just dust on crust. The Canadian model (three images below) and the NBM (four images below) are similar and show about a tenth of an inch. That lines up with the ECM EPS (not shown).
Thus, an inch or two is expected Sunday night and into Monday morning, with the GFS solution a welcome outlier and possibility. There could certainly be some stashes of very low-end powder conditions on Monday morning, especially up top. Light snow showers may continue at times on Monday, with dry weather returning on Tuesday.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance is favoring mostly dry weather into the second week of March or longer, with no clear signs of the next storm cycle. Best guess is still over the latter part of the month, particularly the last week.
The guidance (GFS below) is favoring an inside slider-type short wave to move southward east of Mammoth through the Great Basin around Wednesday next week. These systems are moisture-starved and usually don’t produce much, if any, snowfall, with the main effect being colder temperatures and breezy winds.
That is what the current models are showing, with only a chance for a dusting of snowfall on Wednesday afternoon and night. The latest operational ECM and GFS are completely dry, but the ECM EPS is showing around a tenth of an inch (image below). Thus, there should be no expectations for powder conditions and probably just dust on crust if anything.
Another stronger short wave (GEFS below) will probably drop southward into the Great Basin again late over the following weekend, keeping temperatures seasonable and probably more wind. However, there are many solutions that do bring the trough southward farther westward, and some snowfall over that weekend or early the next week can’t be ruled out. The ECM EPS is showing about a tenth of an inch of liquid or an inch of snowfall.
Otherwise, the models favor the longwave trough being positioned east of California across the interior West, and more sliders are possible until possibly around mid-month or later. The latest GFS ensemble does develop weak troughing over CA (image below) at the very end of the forecast period, but that is too far out for reliability. The ECM EPS keeps troughing farther eastward for a better chance of continued dry weather, but does have about 2 tenths over the period (see two images below).
The super-long-range fantasy guidance is mixed, with the GFS keeping the mostly dry weather ongoing through the third week of the month, and the ECM model showing normal precipitation returning (image below). Both the GFS and ECM super-extended forecasts favor a return to at least normal precipitation in the last part of March (images below). It would be very unusual not to have any powder days during March or April, so it will happen. WG
