Powder Forecast – Tuesday, March 3rd, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 3/4 = 0”
Thu 3/5 = 0 – 1”
Fri 3/6 = 0”
Sat 3/7 = 0 – 1”
Sun 3/8 = 0”
Mon 3/9 = 0”
Tue 3/10 = 0”
Wed – Fri 3/11 – 3/13 = 0 – 1”
March Snowfall = 1”
March Forecast = 30 – 45”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 3/7– No snowfall expected except for a chance for flurries or a light snow shower overnight. Little or no accumulation expected.
Thu 3/8 through Sat 3/7 – No snowfall expected all days except for a slight chance for a flurry or light snow shower Friday night, little or no accumulation expected.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows a weak ridge of high pressure over the state, resulting in fair weather on the mountain. That ridge will quickly move eastward tomorrow as the weather system pictured off the coast moves into the northern part of the state.
That system will move through Northern California on Wednesday afternoon (image below) with almost all of the associated precipitation staying well north of Mammoth. Nonetheless, there is still a chance for flurries or light snow showers overnight into Thursday. No meaningful accumulation is expected.
A piece of the low-pressure system will break off and become a cut-off low positioned just off the northern coast of Baja by Saturday (image below). As it does so, northeast upslope flow will increase for the eastern Sierra Friday night and into Saturday, which could also result in a few flurries or light snow showers. No meaningful accumulation is expected again. Dry and seasonable weather should continue through the weekend with breezy easterly winds, primarily up top.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance favors dry weather into the second week of March, with most of it favoring continued dry weather through mid-month or longer. One of the global models currently has a different story.
The cut-off low will eventually move eastward by the middle of next week (image below), and high pressure will rebuild over the state, bringing dry weather. It will also be slightly warmer with spring likely in the lower part of the mountain. This weather pattern may last through the following weekend according to most of the guidance except for the GFS model.
The latest 12z run doubled down on its solution of troughing across the West Coast end of next week and through the following weekend, now having a deep high-latitude upper-level low (image below) move into CA with a decent over-water trajectory before landfall as well.
That position of the trough would also mean moist upslope southwest flow into the Sierra (orographic enhancement of the precipitation field), and the low geopotential height suggests seasonably low snow levels. It is not showing huge amounts of precipitation, but an inch or more of liquid (image below) for the weekend would be enough for powder conditions under high liquid-to-snow ratios.
Unfortunately, that favorable solution is not shared by the other guidance, with the latest ECMWF run showing no precipitation for the same time period (image below) with high pressure ridging over the West Coast. It also does not favor the trough digging far enough westward and with any overwater trajectory before landfall (two images below) as the 12z deterministic run shows. The ECM EPS (three images below) is showing the trough much farther eastward over the central US and ridging over CA and the West.
The GFS ensemble mean solution of northwest jet stream flow is mostly dry with seasonably cold temperatures and blustery winds. QPF for the same period only shows about two-tenths liquid. Currently forecast favors a blend of the GFS ensemble and ECM EPS for dry conditions, seasonable temperatures, and hopefully breezy westerly winds for some wind buff up top. There is still some uncertainty, though, with a reversal of the 10-mb zonal wind, a developing SSW event, and an associated stratospheric polar vortex split over the next two weeks that takes time to play out in the troposphere.
The super-fantasy range guidance from the GFS extended is favoring snowfall returning to the Sierra and Mammoth over the second half of the month, with slightly above-normal precipitation for the two-week period (images below).
However, the ECM extended forecasts show continued below-normal precipitation through the third week, followed by normal precipitation in the last week of March (image below).
As stated before, it would be high unusual not have any powder days in March. WG
