Powder Forecast – Friday March 6^th, 2026

Ted Schlaepfer CCM  —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy

No Update on Tuesday March 10^th

Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.

Sesame Snow Course

**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)

Sat 3/7 = 0”
Sun 3/8 = 0”
Mon 3/9 = 0”
Tue 3/10 = 0”
Wed 3/11 = 0”
Thu 3/12 = 0”
Fri 3/13 = 0”
Sat – Mon 3/14 – 3/16 = 0”

March Snowfall = 1”
March Forecast = 15 – 30”

Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:

Sat 3/7 through Tue 3/10 – No snowfall expected all days.

Forecast Summary:

Short Term (Days 1 – 4):

  The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows an area of low pressure over Utah and high pressure off the coast and across the Interior West.  That low-pressure system will retrograde westward and cut off over northern Baja through early next week.  High pressure off the coast will build into the state this weekend, and continued fair weather is expected with warmer temperatures through Sunday, when spring is expected over most of the mountain.

  A trough or two will move eastward well north of Mammoth early next week (image below) and will suppress the ridge a bit before it rebuilds on Wednesday (image below).  Temps will probably cool a bit on Monday and Tuesday before warming back up in the middle of the week.  There will probably be some breezy westerly winds on Tuesday as well.

Long Range (Days 5+):

   The longer-range guidance is favoring dry weather through mid-month or longer, with no clear sign of the next snowfall.  Best guess right now would be over the last part of March or sometime after March 25^th.

  Another shortwave will likely suppress the ridge a bit at the end of next week or over the following weekend (image below), which could lead to a slight dip in temperatures, with spring conditions continuing across most of the mountain.  Otherwise, the guidance builds the ridge even stronger by the following week (two images below) for spring conditions everywhere and slushy conditions on the bottom.

  The long-range guidance does flatten the ridge a bit at the end of the period (image below), but dry weather will likely continue through the third week of March or longer. A deep trough is expected in the East, and that will keep the ridge pumped up across the West. 

This pattern is the eventual response to the SSW event that started at the beginning of March and often leads to cold in the East couple/three weeks after the polar stratospheric disruption.

  The fantasy guidance has precipitation returning over the last six or seven days of the month or after March 25^th.  Both the ECM and GFS extended forecasts show a similar pattern, with the GFS slightly wetter at just over an inch (image below) and the ECM just under an inch (two images below).  It will just be a waiting game now, hoping the pattern flips again before the winter jet stream retreats northward for the summer in April.  WG