Powder Forecast – Friday, March 13th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 3/14 = 0”
Sun 3/15 = 0”
Mon 3/16 = 0”
Tue 3/17 = 0”
Wed 3/18 = 0”
Thu 3/19 = 0”
Fri 3/20 = 0”
Sat – Mon 3/21 – 3/23 = 0”
March Snowfall = 1”
March Forecast = 5 – 20”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 3/14 through Tue 3/17 – No snowfall expected all days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows high pressure is positioned across the southern part of the state with a couple weak weather systems moving into the PacNW. Those systems will dive southward through Nevada/Utah tomorrow and only squash the ridge slightly before the ridge rebuilds stronger on Sunday and into early next week.
The end result will be continued spring conditions on the mountain with northeast facing slopes that don’t get direct sunlight remaining firm through Sunday. Then the ridge will produce even warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday with spring likely on the entire mountain.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance is favoring dry weather through the third week of March, with the next guess right now for the next snowfall around March 25th or later. Unfortunately, the models are not in agreement on when exactly a favorable pattern change will occur. This month is similar to March 2015, which saw very warm temperatures and only 7” of snowfall. That April ended up with 28”, and May also observed 28”.
The guidance indicates the high-pressure ridge will peak in strength around midweek next week (image below), bringing continued very warm March temperatures and spring-like conditions. Temperatures will probably get near 70 at Main by Wednesday/Thursday and 75F at Eagle, where there will be significant melt that may jeopardize conditions.
The ridge will likely weaken a bit by the following weekend, with cooler temperatures, and the GFS ensemble suggests a favorable pattern change over the next week. It moves the ridge eastward, with troughing across the West Coast (image below), and the jet far enough southward into central CA for a chance of snowfall in Mammoth. It keeps the trough in place into the following weekend (two images below). The model shows almost an inch of precipitation for the back end of the period (three images below).
Unfortunately, at this time, the ECM EPS does not show a similar pattern (see image below). It does weaken the ridge, but doesn’t move it eastward like the GFS and keeps any troughing along the West Coast weak and much farther northward. That drier solution is reflected in the model’s QPF, which only has about two-tenths (two images below).
The ECM is usually the better model, but not always. Hopefully, the GFS will be correct; if not, recent history discussed above suggests there will be powder days in April and maybe even May. I know for sure the powder season isn’t completely over yet. WG
