Powder Forecast – Tuesday March 17h, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 3/18 = 0”
Thu 3/19 = 0”
Fri 3/20 = 0”
Sat 3/21 = 0”
Sun 3/22 = 0”
Mon 3/23 = 0”
Tue 3/24 = 0”
Wed – Fri 3/25 – 3/27 = 0”
March Snowfall = 1”
March Forecast = 1 – 6”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 3/18 through Sat 3/20 – No snowfall expected all days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows strong high pressure is building across the state and the West Coast, pushing the jet stream northward into British Columbia. Temperatures are very mild for mid-March and are currently in the low 60s at Main today.
The high-pressure ridge will peak in strength on Thursday and weaken only slightly heading into the weekend (image below). Temperatures will continue to warm each day through Friday, with temperatures at Main Thursday/Friday approaching 70F and likely into the low 70s at Canyon/Eagle, where significant melt is expected. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance favors mostly dry weather for the rest of the month. As mentioned last time, this month is similar to March 2015 and also to March 1997. Both of those Marches occurred during springs leading up to strong El Niños the following winter, and an El Niño is favored for winter 2026-27. Unfortunately, March through May 1997 saw no snowfall. So there is precedent for the powder season to end this early.
The GFS ensemble model develops a rather deep longwave trough along the West Coast by midweek (image below). It currently has the jet stream too far north for any precipitation in Mammoth, with the main effects being cooler temperatures and breezy winds. The ECM model is quite different (two images below), and the ECM EPS is similar. They restrengthen the ridge early next week for another round of fair and above normal temperatures. The forecast leans toward the ECM EPS; either way, it will likely be dry.
The longer-range solution of the latest ECMWF does have a weak trough undercutting a ridge positioned off the Pacific Northwest coast (image below). However, it doesn’t produce much precipitation and shows only about a quarter inch of liquid (see two images below), or maybe a few inches of snowfall.
This spring-like pattern is supported by both the ECM EPS (image below) and the GFS ensemble (two images below), which both show a weak trough along the West Coast in the extended time frame. That would allow weak systems to pass through at times, but nothing big.
The ECM EPS has little for the 15-day period (image below) at about two tenths, and the GFS ensemble is only slightly wetter (two images below) at around a third. Overall, significant snowfall is unlikely for the rest of March, and March 2026 will end up looking like March 1997 or 2015.
Whether we stay dry like 1997 or see some more snowfall this season is still not settled, and I would lean toward at least a couple more storms, likely in early April. The latest run of the ECM EPS 45-day forecast does show average precipitation for the eastern Sierra in April (image below) or about 25” of snowfall. It ain’t over till it’s over. WG
