Powder Forecast – Tuesday, March 24th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 3/25 = 0”
Thu 3/26 = 0”
Fri 3/27 = 0”
Sat 3/28 = 0”
Sun 3/29 = 0”
Mon 3/30 = 0”
Tue 3/31 = 2 – 5”
Wed – Fri 4/1 – 4/3 = 15 – 30”
March Snowfall = 1”
March Forecast = 1 – 5”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 3/25 through Sat 3/28 – No snowfall expected all days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows strong high pressure over the Interior West, resulting in continued mild temperatures today. Current temperature at 3 PM this afternoon is 61°F at Main and almost 64°F at Canyon.
The high-pressure ridge will weaken only slightly on Thursday due to a passing weak weather system that is currently well off the coast, before rebuilding slightly again on Friday (image below). Temperatures should decrease a bit on Wednesday and Thursday before leveling off on Friday, then decrease again over the weekend, when conditions should firm up across the upper mountain.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance has now come into better agreement that a change back to winter will occur at the end of the month and into early April. While the potential pattern change is about a week out, some model runs suggest a good late-season snowfall event that could really help with coverage for the rest of the season on the Canyon/Eagle side of the mountain, where it is currently low tide again.
What seems like a never-ending high-pressure ridge will finally move eastward early next week and be replaced by a longwave trough. The latest ECMWF run moves an initial wave into CA around Tuesday next week (image below), followed by a strong short wave around Wednesday (two images below). The second one is forecast to have good southwest flow ahead of the trough passage, which enhances precipitation in the Sierra through orographic effects.
This scenario is well supported by the ECM EPS and the GFS ensemble (images below), which both show a very similar upper-level tropospheric pattern, in addition to the ECMWF run described above. Thus, confidence is higher than normal for a 7-10 day forecast that the run of dry, warm weather will come to an end and winter will return in early April.
The 12z ECMWF run shows around 2.5” liquid (image below), and the 12z GFS has a bit more at almost 4” (two images below). The Canadian (three images below) is closer to the ECM at a bit over 2”, but has 7” west of the Sierra crest.
The ensemble means from the models are not as wet with the ECM EPS (image below) showing around 2”, and the GFS is the dry outlier at just over an inch (two images below). The forecast leans toward the ECM EPS, with decent upside toward the wetter scenarios, including at least a foot at Main and a good shot at two feet of snowfall. Even though confidence is high for a return to winter, confidence is also high that the details of the upcoming event will change as we get closer.
The fantasy range ECM EPS keeps a weak trough over CA through the following weekend (image below), which would at least keep temperatures winter-like on the mountain after the potential snowfall. There could also be a weak storm, but likely nothing huge, with dry weather probably returning in the second week of March and lasting into mid-month. WG
