Powder Forecast – Tuesday, April 7th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 4/8 = 0”
Thu 4/9 = 0”
Fri 4/10 = 0”
Sat 4/11 = 1 – 2”
Sun 4/12 = 5 – 8”
Mon 4/13 = 4 – 7”
Tue 4/14 = 1 – 2”
Wed – Fri 4/15 – 4/17 = 1 – 3”
April Snowfall = 7”
April Forecast = 25 – 35”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 4/8 and Thu 4/09 – No snowfall expected both days. Chance for a late afternoon or evening shower/thunderstorm.
Fri 4/10– Partly cloudy and dry during the morning, then a chance for rain to snowfall late afternoon or evening with light snowfall possible overnight. Accumulations 1 – 2” by Saturday AM
Sat 4/111– Snowfall expected at times during the day, increasing in intensity late afternoon and through the evening. Accumulations 5 – 8” by Sunday AM, up to 10” up top.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows high pressure is situated over the state, resulting in continued fair weather and mild temperatures with Main into the 50s this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure in the eastern Pacific will slowly meander toward the coast over the next few days.
The models place the cut-off low just off the Central CA coast on Friday afternoon (image below), and it will produce showers and thunderstorms west of the Sierra during the day. It will likely edge far enough eastward by Friday night for precipitation to start in Mammoth, but snow levels will be around 8500-9000 feet.
Snowfall should increase on Saturday, especially overnight into Sunday, as the models now show a stronger upper-level low moving into CA by early Sunday (image below). This solution is well supported by the ECM EPS (two images below), which also shows a moderately deep trough. Snow levels should quickly fall to 7000 feet or lower on Saturday, then to 5000 feet or lower on Sunday/Monday.
Model QPF from the deterministic models is uplifting with the GFS the wettest at well over 2” liquid for the weekend into Monday period (image below). The ECM is only slightly drier at just under 2” and the ECM EPS (three images below) is the driest at about 1.25” liquid. Forecast follows a blend of the ECM EPS and deterministic models with about 10-20” of snowfall forecast. The Friday update should have it dialed in.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance has trended more favorably since the last update, with a modestly active pattern expected through at least mid-month. That includes a decent chance for another powder storm around Canyon closing day and no signs of a longstanding high-pressure ridge.
High pressure will build into the state Tuesday through the middle of next week, with the next chance for a storm or two toward the end of next week or the following weekend. The latest ECM run moves a deep trough into the Sierra over that weekend (image below), and this stormy pattern is somewhat supported by the ECM EPS again (two images below).
The QPF from the ECM run this morning has over 2” of liquid (image below) or almost two feet of snowfall from the passing storm. Unfortunately, the ECM EPS is not showing nearly as much, with only about half an inch over the same time period (see the two images below). The GFS ensemble also has a trough, and the 18z GFS run is now showing a very deep trough, so hopefully the deterministic models are onto something, and there will be one last powder day before Canyon closes.
The longer-range ECM EPS indicates the wet, cool pattern will only fade slowly over the last part of April. It has average to slightly above-normal precipitation for the week after Canyon closes, which would be around half an inch of liquid at this time of year. So there is at least a chance for some very late-season powder out of Chair 2 or Main Lodge. WG
