Powder Forecast – Friday April 24th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 4/25 = 0”
Sun 4/26 = 4 – 6” (H20 = 0.40” – 0.60)**3
Mon 4/27 = 0 – 1”
Tue 4/28 = ~1”
Wed 4/29 = 0”
Thu 4/30 = 0”
Fri 5/1 = 0”
Sat – Mon 5/2 – 5/4 = 0”
April Snowfall = 45”
April Forecast = ~50”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 4/25 – Snowfall develops mid-afternoon and continues overnight before ending early Sunday. Accumulations 4 – 6” by Sunday AM, 6”+ up Top.
Sun 4/26 – Snowfall ends during the morning followed by a chance for afternoon snow showers or flurries that will end during the evening. Accumulations 0 – 1” by Monday AM.
Mon 4/27 – Light snowfall likely develops during the afternoon and ends evening. Accumulations ~1” by Tuesday AM.
Tue 4/28 – No snowfall expected.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) from this afternoon shows a very weak area of low pressure over Central CA, spitting out a bunch of high clouds over the Sierra, but no precipitation. It will move eastward tonight and the weak low well off the coast in the eastern Pacific will move toward the coast by early Saturday.
The weak low will gain a bit of strength when it moves ashore Saturday afternoon (image below) and will have enough lift to produce light to moderate snowfall on the mountain Saturday afternoon and overnight. However, dynamics and orographic lift will be minimal overall.
The GFS model is once again the wettest of the bunch with around 0.65” liquid (image below) by Sunday morning when the lifts open at 9 AM, including Chair 16 now. The ECM (two images below) and the National Blend of Models (three images below) are showing around 0.40” liquid. That amount seems quite reasonable given the upper-level pattern.
And just under half an inch is what both the GFS ensemble (image below) and the ECM EPS (two images below) are showing for the event. Forecast leans toward around 0.50” of liquid and 4-6” of snowfall on the mountain, enough for powder conditions Sunday morning. Snow levels will be around 7000 feet to start and will lower to around 5500 feet early Sunday.
Snowfall should stop by the time lifts open Sunday with just a chance for afternoon snow showers or flurries that will end during the evening. Another weak low will drop southward on Monday (image below), producing more widespread snow showers Monday afternoon and evening, possibly adding up to an inch of accumulation. Dry weather returns Tuesday.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance is now looking more spring-like after a snowy April and a handful of powder days. The models are not bullish on any more storms moving into Mammoth for the rest of the forecast period, although one or two cannot be ruled out during the second week of May. Thus, Sunday could be the last call for powder days as it is getting rather late on the spring calendar and closer to the warm season.
The upper-level low that was supposed to move into the state around mid-week in the last post will now move harmlessly into Baja around Thursday next week (image below). High pressure will build into the state, bringing mostly dry weather through the following weekend, except for a late-afternoon shower or thunderstorm at times.
The longer-range pattern shows a spring pattern with a split zonal jet stream over the West Coast and a ridge of high pressure over British Columbia (image below). That means a weather system or two could move into the state at times, as suggested by the ECM model (see the two images below). If it moves far enough southward, it could produce snowfall in Mammoth.
The ECM EPS precipitation forecast is not very bullish about anything significant in the extended pattern, with only about a tenth of an inch of liquid for the back end of the pattern (image below).
The ECM EPS 45-day forecast has about 1.65” from now until the end of May, and subtracting the 0.50” for this weekend means the model indicates another inch or so of liquid, or about a foot of snowfall, may fall during May if snow levels are low enough.
You never know. WG
