Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discussion

November 1st, 2023 @ 1:23 PM –  A ridge of high pressure is slowly moving through the area this week and will replaced with a low-pressure system that will bring decent rains to our north late this week. Mammoth Mountain could pick up some light rain/snow from that system this Saturday. Scroll down the page for my 10 day Weather Discusion.

5-Day Weather Forecast Details: For Mammoth Mountain, Mammoth Lakes, and the Eastern Sierra, expect mostly clear skies with just a few high clouds around at times into Friday. There is a slight chance of rain and snow on Saturday with the snow level above 9000 feet.

Into Friday mid-day temperatures out on the Mountain @ the 9000-foot level will be in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

Night-time lows will be will be in the mid-30s with low humidity levels, the web blub should be low enough for some marginal snowmaking conditions.

The Wind Forecast is for SW winds starting tonight into Saturday. Wind speed will be 5-15 MPH with stonger gusts over the top. Expect wind speeds to increase starting Friday and into Saturday.

For Mammoth Lakes, mid-day temperatures will be in the low to mid-60s the rest of the week. By Saturday temperatures will be in the mid 50s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s.

Down at the 4100-foot level in Bishop, mid-day temperatures will be in the low to mid-70s into Sunday. Night-time lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Snowman out...

 
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 Snowmaking Forecast

11-1-2023 @ 10 AM – Over the next few days, temperatures will be a bit warm with very dry humidity in the area. The dry air should allow for some marginal snowmaking for the next 2 to 3 nights, and then conditions look to shut the system down for possibly a few nights.

Looking ahead, you can see in the second gif below the nightly temperatures will be coming down in about a week. There is also a bit of snow in the forecast next week; those 2-3 inches, if they come true, would be a big bonus for snowmakers.

 

Mammoth Mountain 10-Day Weather Discussion

An upper ridge over our area will continue to bring above normal temperatures with dry conditions through Friday. Winds will remain light and it will be a good time to get outdoors will the area is for the most part snow free.

A change in the pattern by late in the week has a strong low off the pacific north-west with an moderate AR band coming into Oregon and Northern California.

This far South the National Blend of Models (NBM) has a tiny amount of that AR Band and it’s moisture reaching Mammoth by Saturday afternoon. Precipitation amounts are low with about .05 to .10 in the QPF Outlook. The snow level would be above the 9000 foot level. Meanwhile the ECMWF 12Z is now dry this weekend.

Once this first front comes through it will open the door for the second cold front that will come through the area on Tuesday. That second system is forecasted to have around 2-4+ inches of snow with it. If the front would drop just a bit south Mammoth Mountain could get double those snowfall numbers.

The third front is way out in the fantasy outlook of days 9 and 10 so confidence is low. What I am seeing today in that time frame is the third system coming through for the opener into the following Saturday with similar amounts to the Tuesday system.

Confidence in this longer term pattern change will continue to grow as the shorter range models trend wet, no guarantees on anything yet.  We have been seeing signs of a pattern change around the 10th for a while now. Hoping this is will be the start of the base building season.

Keep the faith folks, the weather pattern looks to be changing in our favor for a decent Thanksgiving later this month.

Snowman

>>Content for this Mammoth Weather Page is from: Steve Taylor (Snowman), Ted Schlaepfer – (Mammoth WeatherGuy CCM), NWS Reno / Hanford / Vegas. Model Images from Weather Bell with on Hill WX data from the Mammoth Mountain Ski Patrol.

Mammoth Mountain 10-30 Day Fantasy Weather Outlook

** Weather Disclaimer: The Fantasy Outlooks are “Outlooks, Not Forecasts.” Some years, the wet patterns that appear in these longer range outlooks pan out; other times, the changes are always out in the fantasy period and never make it to the short-term forecast period. When all the ensemble models have agreement on wet or dry patterns, more often than not, they do seem to pan out more often then not.

October 28th, 2023 @ 5 PM – The longer-range 10-30-Day Fantasy Outlook is calling for below-average snowfall, with temperatures looking just a bit above average now. 

The good news moving forward is there looks to be a change over to a long wave troughing over the West starting sometime during the first full week of November.

While the Ensemble models delay the change a bit, confidence is slowing growing that the pattern will change over to cooler and wetter sooner than later.

There are no signs in the long-range ensembles of anything that could bring in footage yet. It’s very early in the game, and I have seen patterns like this bring in some top-opening storms.

Of course, since this is the Fantasy Outlook period, we are looking for trends, not day-to-day specific details and amounts. Everyone also needs to keep in mind the El Ninos that do turn out to be wet are more backloaded with drier starts to the season possible and snow starting to pick up around the Holidays.

So for now, it’s just wait and see time, I am sure we are going to get into some action here very soon. Weather Patterns can change quickly at this time of year.

Pray for Snow, Snowman

840 Hours Out – ECMWF Extended Ensemble Mean840 Hours Out – GEFS Ext Ensemble Mean

840 Hour Snowfall from the ECMWF Ext. Ensemble Mean

840 Hour Snowfall from the GEFS Ensemble Mean

 

Temperature Anomaly – ECMWF Ext. Ensemble Mean

ENSO – El Nino / La Nine Outlook – September 26th, 2023

El Niño Update: The current El Nino is in the strong category. How the event affects Mammoth Mountain and the Eastern Sierra this winter is uncertain. There are a lot of variables with this particular El Nino event that have not been seen during other strong events. Take a look at the video below for more information.

There are not a lot of strong El Ninos to look back at, so it’s hard to trust any of the long-range data right now. Past El Niño winters have been slow to start, so don’t be surprised if the Eastern Sierra sees below-average rain and snowfall this Fall. 

The video below is new from Mike Discussing the most current El Nino Data. All the images in this section have been updated, with what’s the most recent on there as of 9-26-23.

> To note, El Niño winters can be slow to start, so don’t be surprised if the Eastern Sierra sees below-average rain and snowfall this Fall.

SSTA Mammoth Weather Forecast
SSTA Mammoth Weather Forecast

Current Weather and Information Posts

Author – Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill. 

Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog reports. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016. 

Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth and Bishop, along with KTLA, AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.

Click Here to Learn More About the People Who Make MammothSnowman.com a Reality