Powder Forecast – Friday April 10th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 4/11 = 2 – 4” (H20 = 0.35 – 0.50”)**3
Sun 4/12 = 10 – 14” (H20 = 1.00 – 1.25”)**3
Mon 4/13 = 7 – 10” (H20 = 0.65 – 0.90”)**3
Tue 4/14 = 0 – 1”
Wed 4/15 = 0”
Thu 4/16 = 0”
Fri 4/17 = 0 – 2”
Sat – Mon 4/18 – 4/20 = 1 – 4”
April Snowfall = 7”
April Forecast = 35 – 45”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 4/11– Snowfall develops during the afternoon and becomes heavy overnight, tapering in intensity toward dawn. Accumulations 10 – 14” by Sunday AM, up to 15”+ up top.
Sun 4/11– Snowfall intensity increases during the afternoon and evening before tapering off overnight. Accumulations 7 – 10” by Monday AM, up to 12” up top.
Mon 4/12– Snow showers redevelop during the afternoon, end of the evening. Accumulations ~1” by Tuesday AM.
Tue 4/14 – No snowfall expected.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows a weak area of low pressure just off the Bay Area coast producing numerous showers and thunderstorms across central and northern CA. Also pictured is a stronger low-pressure system moving southward from the Gulf of Alaska.
The weak low will drag a cold front into the Sierra this evening and tonight resulting in a period of snowfall with snow levels around 7500-8000 feet by this evening. It should be strong enough to produce a few inches before tapering off very early Saturday and ahead of the stronger low that moves into the Sierra Saturday night and Sunday.
That upper low will be positioned over Central CA on Sunday morning (image below) and a moderately strong cold front will have passed through Mammoth overnight for about a foot of new snowfall. A second band of moderate to heavy snowfall then moves into Mammoth with the upper-low on Sunday afternoon/evening with snowfall ending late at night. Only afternoon snow showers are expected on Monday. Sunday should be a riders of the storm day, especially PM.
Amounts from the guidance are fairly juicy with the GFS model the wettest at around 3” liquid (image below) with the NBM showing about 2.5” (two images below), and the ECM around 2” (three images below). Forecast leans toward a NBM/ECM blend with about 20-24” of snowfall for the entire two-day event. High pressure builds back into the region Tuesday for fair and continued winter conditions on the mountain.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance is still looking pretty decent for April, although nothing is guaranteed this time of year. There will be a chance for something small end of next week followed by a better chance just after Canyon closes. Overall, conditions should stay winter-like through next week or longer.
The latest ECM model has an inside slider type trough for around Thursday next week (image below) and the GFS is slightly farther westward with its passage. If it is far enough westward, then there is a chance for light snowfall that could add up to an inch or two.
The 12z run of the ECM model then moves a very deep trough for the end of April southward to just off the CA coast (image below) on the day after Canyon closes and moves it inland during the week. The model is showing around 2” liquid (two images below) or maybe close to two feet of snowfall.
However, the ECM EPS does not support such a deep trough at this time and has a much weaker trough along the West Coast and southward into CA (image below). The QPF from the model is enough for powder conditions at about 2/3 of an inch liquid (two images below) with the best chance for snowfall around Monday or Tuesday that week. Hopefully the deterministic run is onto something as the 15-day total is quite impressive for mid to late April at close to 5” liquid (three images below).
The fantasy range guidance from the ECM EPS keeps a longwave trough along the interior West and a ridge in the East Coast (image below) into the last week of April. That position of the trough is too far eastward for moisture laden storms to move into CA and supports inside slider type storms that are dry, but cool, and would keep winter conditions ongoing, especially up top. The model is showing average precipitation for the last week of April, however, that is not much for that time of year. Last call for powder days is approaching. WG
Mammoth Mountain Powder Outlook – Author Bio: Ted Schlaepfer, a Certified Consulting Meteorologist (CCM) with over 30 years of experience, has provided his popular Powder Forecast Posts here at Mammoth Snowman since the 2008/09 winter.
A lifelong weather enthusiast, Ted’s passion for snow and rain led him to skiing at age 5. He discovered Mammoth in 1979 and has been a regular visitor since the late 80s. His powder forecasts have helped countless skiers enjoy multiple powder days on Mammoth Mountain. Catch his fresh Powder Forecast Posts every Tuesday and Friday by 5 PM from November through April.
