Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discussion

February 4th, 2023 @ 7 AM – Winter Storm Warning tonight into Sunday… 1 – 2+ feet possible above 9000 feet by late Sunday. Update later today when all the new data comes in.  Snowman

February 1st, 2023 @ 3:34 PM

Mammoth Weather Summary:  On Thursday there will be increasing clouds during the day as a very weak system is moving to our north. By Friday morning expect some cloudy skies with a few possible light snow showers early on.

The next system will be more moderate in strength and have some decent moisture. As of now it appears there could be in the area of 6-12 inches of snow from the Sunday system.

By Monday the low has moved to the SE of the area and skies will clear out fast for what looks like a possible bluebird powder day up top.

This does look like the snow producer that is needed to clean up the rest of the NE wind snow sculptures you see up top in spots right now.

If you’re going to be out on the hill on Thursday expect pt cloudy skies with increasing clouds during the afternoon hours with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. The wind will be out of the SW in the 5-10 MPH range with gusts into the 15-20 MPH range over the higher elevations. 

On Friday expect cloudy skies with a few possible snow showers early then clearing to pt cloudy skies with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s in the Main Lodge area. Winds will be southwest @ 20-25 mph, with gusts as high as 45-55 mph over the mid and upper mountain. 

For you Weekend Warriors, expect sunny skies to start the day on Saturday with increasing clouds during the PM hours with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Wind will be moderate out of the SW.

Sunday looks to offer up snow Moderate to Heavy at times with day times highs in the mid to upper 20s. Snowfall accumulations during the day look to be in the 3-6+ inch range.

Snowman

PS: Scroll down the page for the full Mammoth Mountain Weather Discussion & Long Range Outlook

NWS Mammoth Mountain Forecast Photo
NWS Mammoth Mountain Forecast Photo
Snowfall Forecast for Mammoth Mountain
Snowfall Forecast for Mammoth Mountain

Mammoth Mountain 10 Day Outlook

Below is the EPS Ensemble for the next 10 days. You can see the next weak low that is coming on Friday followed by a moderate system Saturday night into Sunday night. Those two systems will be followed more ridging that lasts right out to Day 10.

ECM 10 Day Outlook

Below is the EPS 24 hour Precipitation Forecast for the next 10 days. The gif shows a very weak system for Friday followed by the moderate system on Sunday that could result in a riders of the storm day on Sunday with a blue bird powder day possible for next Monday.

ECMWF 24 Hour Snowfall Outlook

11-16 Day Fantasy Long-Range Discussion

Beyond the 10-day outlook models are in agreement that there will be some troughing starting to set up out west. How it all develops is in question as the GEFS and EPS Ensembles are not all in agreement at this time. This pattern would bring some snowfall, let’s hope that the pattern west of the Sierra as that would bring much more snowfall.

Longer Range Weather Data

FYI (Long Range Weather Data is not a forecast)  Both the EPS 45 Day Control and the GEFS Ensembles have the area getting wetter the last week of February and into the first week part of March. The GEFS has about 8-10 inches of water with the EPS showing 15-20 inches of water.

Like I have said many times over the years, patterns tend to repeat themselves so maybe there will a mini AR repeat. That far out of course is unreliable at this point in time, but it sure is worth noting seeing that wet of a pattern on the EPS 45.

EPS 45 Day Ensemble Control
GEFS Ensemble Mean
ENSO Outlook

Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather Posts

Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discussion

February 1st, 2023 @ 3:34 PM

Mammoth Weather Summary:  On Thursday there will be increasing clouds during the day as a very weak system is moving to our north. By Friday morning expect some cloudy skies with a few possible light snow showers early on.

The next system will be more moderate in strength and have some decent moisture. As of now it appears there could be in the area of 6-12 inches of snow from the Sunday system.

By Monday the low has moved to the SE of the area and skies will clear out fast for what looks like a possible bluebird powder day up top.

This does look like the snow producer that is needed to clean up the rest of the NE wind snow sculptures you see up top in spots right now.

If you’re going to be out on the hill on Thursday expect pt cloudy skies with increasing clouds during the afternoon hours with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. The wind will be out of the SW in the 5-10 MPH range with gusts into the 15-20 MPH range over the higher elevations. 

On Friday expect cloudy skies with a few possible snow showers early then clearing to pt cloudy skies with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s in the Main Lodge area. Winds will be southwest @ 20-25 mph, with gusts as high as 45-55 mph over the mid and upper mountain. 

For you Weekend Warriors, expect sunny skies to start the day on Saturday with increasing clouds during the PM hours with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Wind will be moderate out of the SW.

Sunday looks to offer up snow Moderate to Heavy at times with day times highs in the mid to upper 20s. Snowfall accumulations during the day look to be in the 3-6+ inch range.

Snowman

PS: Scroll down the page for the full Mammoth Mountain Weather Discussion & Long Range Outlook

NWS Mammoth Mountain Forecast Photo
NWS Mammoth Mountain Forecast Photo

Mammoth Mountain 10 Day Outlook

Below is the EPS Ensemble for the next 10 days. You can see the next weak low that is coming on Friday followed by a moderate system Saturday night into Sunday night. Those two systems will be followed more ridging that lasts right out to Day 10.

ECM 10 Day Outlook

Below is the EPS 24 hour Precipitation Forecast for the next 10 days. The gif shows a very weak system for Friday followed by the moderate system on Sunday that could result in a riders of the storm day on Sunday with a blue bird powder day possible for next Monday.

ECMWF 24 Hour Snowfall Outlook

11-16 Day Fantasy Long-Range Discussion

Beyond the 10-day outlook models are in agreement that there will be some troughing starting to set up out west. How it all develops is in question as the GEFS and EPS Ensembles are not all in agreement at this time. This pattern would bring some snowfall, let’s hope that the pattern west of the Sierra as that would bring much more snowfall.

Longer Range Weather Data

FYI (Long Range Weather Data is not a forecast)  Both the EPS 45 Day Control and the GEFS Ensembles have the area getting wetter the last week of February and into the first week part of March. The GEFS has about 8-10 inches of water with the EPS showing 15-20 inches of water.

Like I have said many times over the years, patterns tend to repeat themselves so maybe there will a mini AR repeat. That far out of course is unreliable at this point in time, but it sure is worth noting seeing that wet of a pattern on the EPS 45.

EPS 45 Day Ensemble Control
GEFS Ensemble Mean
ENSO Outlook

Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather Posts