Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discussion

November 5th, 2023 @ 10 AM – Good Morning; let’s look at the forecast for the scheduled opener at Mammoth Mountain next Friday.

Today, there are a few high clouds ahead of the next weather system, which will bring a significant change in the pattern starting Monday.

With this change, you can expect moderate to strong winds today into Tuesday and overcast skies Monday and Tuesday. There will also be a good chance of some accumulating snowfall during that time frame.

5-Day Weather Forecast Details: At the Main Lodge, expect temperatures to be in the mid-40s today, then dropping in the low to mid-30s on Monday with upper 20s for Tuesday. Mid-day highs will be in the low to mid-30s the rest of the week right into next Friday.

Nighttime lows will be perfect for snowmaking, with upper teens to lower 20s expected at night.

Expect increasing winds in all areas over the next 12-24 hours with strong gusts in the 65-85+ MPH above the 9500 for level with stronger gusts over ridges and the highest elevations.

Mammoth Lakes temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s this week, with nighttime lows in the teens and twenties. Down in Bishop, it will be in the lower 70s for the next couple of days, and highs will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s for the rest of the week.

Snowman out...

Sunday Morning Satellite Image 11-5-2023 - Mammoth Weather Image
Sunday Morning Satellite Image 11-5-2023

Snowfall and QPF Forecast: Precipitation and Snowfall amounts are in question this morning, with the official forecast calling for about an inch on Mammoth Mountain. However, looking at the data coming in the high-resolution models, they are going wetter this morning.

The NAM is 6-12 inches from MC Coy Station to the top, with the NBM at 4-8 inches and the ECMWF at 1-2 inches. The ground is warm and dry, so whatever does fall will start of melting in the dry dirt, which will limit how much of the snow will stick.

Right now, confidence in the high-resolution models is a bit suspect at best this far south. Maybe they are on to a bit of something. I will be watching each updated model run and will post an update on Monday morning.


Snowmaking Forecast for Mammoth Mountain

Snowmaking & Temperature Forecast 11-5-2023: The forecast for snowmaking is looking good at this time with the window to blow snow reopening late Monday Night/Early Tuesday morning. Snowmaking Crews should then be able to blow snow nightly all the way out to day 10. In the Gif Image below you can see the minimum low each night out to day 10.

Tuesday Night will BE VERY COLD - Perfect for Snowmaking
Tuesday Night will BE VERY COLD – Perfect for Snowmaking
 The next week to 10 Days will be cold enough for nightly snowmaking.
The next week to 10 Days will be cold enough for nightly snowmaking.

Wind Forecast: The next incoming system has already kicked up the wind over Mammoth Mountain. I am seeing gusts to 57 MPH out of the South up top this morning with gusts at the top of Chair 1 at 33 MPH out of the SSW.

Expect the wind speeds to pick up was the day goes on with a SW wind at Main Lodge in the 20-30 MPH range with gusts to 50 MPH possible. Over the higher elevations from MC Coy to the top there will be gusts in the 65-85 MPH range.

The moderate to strong higher elevation winds will be over the Mountain until late Monday when the wind will start to back off.

For You Travelers: Down on it looks like 395 will be experiencing cross winds near the airport of 50+ MPH on Monday. Travelers along 395 from Bishop to Blanch will see much lighter winds.

Mammoth Mountain 10-Day Weather Discussion

10-5-2023 @ 10 AM – A change in the pattern is finally here and all areas of the Eastern Sierra will feel the effects over the next 24 hours.

An approaching low pressure system will bring much cooler weather along with cloudy skies and finally some snow to the high country above around 8000 feet starting on Monday.

High resolution models think this low will have more moisture than the GFS and the ECMWF are showing. It will be interesting to see which of these models win out.

Beyond Tuesday the low pressure system will slowly move to the SE and put Mammoth Mountain in a cold dry northerly flow. That is a perfect set up to make a ton of snow.

Models diverge a bit around the opener, for now it looks breezy with clear skies Friday and Saturday of Opening weekend. Way out at day 8 both models agree on a strong low that will be off the Pacific Northwest coast.

That low is then forecasted at days 9 and 10 to drop down the California coast. The fine details of where it comes inland and how much water shows up in the QPF is very much in question at this time.

Do keep the faith folks, the weather pattern looks to be changing in our favor to at least get a few groomer runs opened over the next couple weeks.

With several inches of snow on the ground and no dry dirt ,snowmaking crews can quickly get runs covered and opened.

I still think November will be drier than normal, but with good snowmaking conditions.

Weather Patterns can change quick so keep checking in here as I will be updating this forecast 3x times a week and daily during storm cycles.


Content on this Mammoth Weather Page from: Steve Taylor (Snowman), Ted S (CCM), NWS Reno / Hanford / Vegas. Model Images from Weather Bell with on Hill WX data from the Mammoth Mountain Ski Patrol.

Mammoth Mountain 10-30 Day Fantasy Weather Outlook

** Weather Disclaimer: The Fantasy Outlooks are “Outlooks, Not Forecasts.” Some years, the wet patterns that appear in these longer range outlooks pan out; other times, the changes are always out in the fantasy period and never make it to the short-term forecast period. When all the ensemble models have agreement on wet or dry patterns, more often than not, they do seem to pan out more often then not.

October 28th, 2023 @ 5 PM – The longer-range 10-30-Day Fantasy Outlook is calling for below-average snowfall, with temperatures looking just a bit below average now

Pray for Snow, Snowman – Next 30 Day Outlook Update on Sunday 11-12

840 Hours Out – ECMWF Extended Ensemble Mean

840 Hours Out – GEFS Ext Ensemble Mean

840 Hour Snowfall from the ECMWF Ext. Ensemble Mean

840 Hour Snowfall from the GEFS Ensemble Mean

Temperature Anomaly – ECMWF Ext. Ensemble Mean

ENSO – El Nino / La Nine Outlook – September 26th, 2023

El Niño Update: The current El Nino is in the strong category. How the event affects Mammoth Mountain and the Eastern Sierra this winter is uncertain. There are a lot of variables with this particular El Nino event that have not been seen during other strong events. Take a look at the video below for more information.

There are not a lot of strong El Ninos to look back at, so it’s hard to trust any of the long-range data right now. Past El Niño winters have been slow to start, so don’t be surprised if the Eastern Sierra sees below-average rain and snowfall this Fall. 

The video below is new from Mike Discussing the most current El Nino Data. All the images in this section have been updated, with what’s the most recent on there as of 9-26-23.

> To note, El Niño winters can be slow to start, so don’t be surprised if the Eastern Sierra sees below-average rain and snowfall this Fall.

SSTA Mammoth Weather Forecast
SSTA Mammoth Weather Forecast

Current Weather and Information Posts

Author – Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill. 

Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog reports. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016. 

Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth and Bishop, along with KTLA, AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.

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