Mammoth Mountain Recreational Weather & Travel Forecast
April 26, 2024
Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discussion
November 19th, 2023 @ 6 PM – As the cut-off low that has been around for a week moves to the east, you can expect moderate to strong upslope NE winds over the higher elevations into mid-day on Monday.
As ridging moves this week, expect mostly sunny skies, warmer daytime highs, and winds at 10-20 MPH out of the SW. A weak inside slider will then usher in some cooler air for the High Country on Thanksgiving Day and into all areas by next weekend.
If you plan to be out skiing and riding the next few days, expect mid-day highs to be in the low to mid-40s. Nighttime lows will be in the lower 30s. Snowmaking is on for tonight but looks marginal Monday through Wednesday night.
Mammoth Mountain 6-10-Day Weather Discussion
10-16-2023 @ 9:32 AM – A deep low-pressure system has cut off from the jet stream and is spinning too far off the coast to bring any snowfall today. The cut of low (COL) will slowly start to move westward later on Friday and into Saturday.
That movement will bring a band of snowfall to Mammoth Mountain later Friday into Saturday. We are not expecting much snowfall as temperatures are still a bit too warm, and there is little moisture to work with.
However, there could be 3-6 inches of fresh above the 9000-foot level of the COL, which takes the track we are seeing today.
As the COL moves off to the east on Sunday, ridging will move in and take over the weather into the Thanksgiving Holiday. That type of weather pattern will bring dry conditions and above-average temperatures right through the 6-10-day period.
As of now, there are no signs of any pattern change. As I said back in September, don’t be surprised if the Fall is drier than usual. I did expect a colder November, as past robust El Nino Falls had drier November’s with lots of cold air around.
Pray for Snow, Snowman – PS: I am working on a video format for all this weather content so you can get a better grasp on Mammoth Weather and the Weather Images I have showing below.
*The content on this Mammoth Weather Page is from Steve Taylor (Snowman), Ted S (CCM), and NWS Reno / Hanford / Vegas. Model Images from Weather Bell with on Hill WX data from the Mammoth Mountain Ski Patrol.
Mammoth Mountain 10-30 Day Fantasy Weather Outlook
** Weather Disclaimer: The Fantasy Outlooks are “Outlooks, Not Forecasts.” Some years, the wet patterns that appear in these longer range outlooks pan out; other times, the changes are always out in the fantasy period and never make it to the short-term forecast period. When all the ensemble models have agreement on wet or dry patterns, more often than not, they do seem to pan out more often then not.
11-12-2023 @ 5 PM – The longer-range 10-30-Day Fantasy Outlook is calling for below-average snowfall, with temperatures looking a bit warmer then we like for consistent snowmaking.
Pray for Snow, Snowman @mammothsnowman – Next 30 Day Outlook Update on Sunday 11-16 @ 6 PM
840 Hours Out – ECMWF Extended Ensemble Mean
840 Hours Out – GEFS Extended Ensemble Mean
Snowfall from the ECMWF Ext. Ensemble Mean
Snowfall from the GEFS Ext. Ensemble Mean
ECMWF – Seasonal Mean Precipitation Outlook – 11-5-2023
ENSO – El Nino / La Nina Outlook – November 12th, 2023
El Niño Update: The current El Nino is in the strong category. How the event affects Mammoth Mountain and the Eastern Sierra this winter is uncertain. There are a lot of variables with this particular El Nino event that have not been seen during other strong events. Take a look at the video below for more information.
There are not a lot of strong El Ninos to look back at, so it’s hard to trust any of the long-range data right now. Past El Niño winters have been slow to start, so don’t be surprised if the Eastern Sierra sees below-average rain and snowfall this Fall.
The video below is new from Mike Discussing the most current El Nino Data. All the images in this section have been updated, with what’s the most recent as of 11-12-23.
>>>> 9-29-23 – To note, El Niño winters can be slow to start, so don’t be surprised if the Eastern Sierra sees below-average rain and snowfall this Fall.
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Mammoth Mountain Recreational Weather & Travel Forecast
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Author – Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog reports. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016.
Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth and Bishop, along with KTLA, AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.
Click Here to Learn More About the People Who Make MammothSnowman.com a Reality
