Mammoth Mountain Recreational Weather & Travel Forecast
April 26, 2024
Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discussion
December 1st, 2023, 2023 @ 6 AM – Good morning; Mammoth Mountain picked up a fresh dusting of snow yesterday and into the evening hours. The snow study site shows about an inch of fresh snow this morning on top of an 11-inch base.
Mammoth Weather 5-Day Forecast: The low-pressure system that brought the snow on Thursday is rapidly heading southeast this morning. That low will gradually be replaced by a ridge of high pressure that will peak on day five, next Tuesday.
Expect some breezy conditions and continued cooler temperatures today, with highs at Main Lodge in the low to mid-30s and winds peaking in the 25-35 MPH range.
On Saturday, a slow warming trend begins with one last day in the 30s and continued breezy conditions. Morning lows will be cold into Saturday, with early morning lows in the low 20s when the lifts open.
Sunday into Tuesday, expect temperatures around Main Lodge to climb into the mid to upper 40s by mid-day. Morning lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Snowmaking will continue to be significant over the next 24 to 36 hours, and then it will be restricted to overnight hours as the ridge progresses through the area.
I know many people get concerned about snow conditions when they see temperatures into the mid-40s. With the sun angle so low in the sky at this time of year, the snow should hold up in winter conditions.
Mammoth Mountain 10-30 Day Fantasy Weather Outlook
** Weather Disclaimer: The Fantasy Outlooks are “Outlooks, Not Forecasts.” Some years, the wet patterns that appear in these longer range outlooks pan out; other times, the changes are always out in the fantasy period and never make it to the short-term forecast period. When all the ensemble models have agreement on wet or dry patterns, more often than not, they do seem to pan out more often then not.
6-16 Day Fantasy Outlook Period as of December 1st, 2023: The pattern of weak systems and then ridging nudging in, followed by more weak fronts continues. Models have been horrid the last couple of weeks but hopefully, they will settle down into something consistent as soon as the boreal winter has arrived.
On the ECMWF ENS below it does have a weak to possibly moderate front coming through later next week with some light snowfall showing up. There looks to be a couple more chances for more light snowfall beyond that out to day 16. As of now, there are no moderate or strong storms showing up in the long-range date out to day 16.
12-1-2023 – 17-30-Day Fantasy Outlook is still calling for overall below-average snowfall at this time. Not what anybody wants to hear but it sure beats being disappointed by the hype you will hear after the model riders see on run of wetness on the GFS.
Remember we have been talking about a drier-than-normal Fall here since September with wetter patterns possibly starting sometime later in December to early January and then into February and March.
I do want to stress the possibly part, as there are no real good anologs to runs with on with this Strong El Nino event. Also to Note, usually El Ninos have warm water along the equator with cooler water to the north and south. This year all those regions have warmer then average water temperatures.
One of my weather mentors believes that all that warm water will result in a weaker jet stream for California this winter. He also has forecasted a migrating Modinki El Nino with the warmer water being centrally based during the heart of the winter.
lol it all ads up to major chaos for the Weather Snow Forecasting Community. Yahoo
Pray for Snow, Snowman @mammothmountainsnowman
*The content on this Mammoth Weather Page is from Steve Taylor (Snowman),Ted S (CCM), and NWS Reno / Hanford / Vegas. Model Images from Weather Bell with on Hill WX data from the Mammoth Mountain Ski Patrol.
1100 Hours Out – ECMWF Extended Ensemble Mean
30 Day Snowfall from the ECMWF Ext. Ensemble Mean
ECMWF – Seasonal Mean Precipitation Outlook – 11-5-2023
This Model Updates Every 30 Days
ENSO – El Nino / La Nina Outlook – November 12th, 2023
El Niño Update: The current El Nino is in the strong category. How the event affects Mammoth Mountain and the Eastern Sierra this winter is uncertain. There are a lot of variables with this particular El Nino event that have not been seen during other strong events. Take a look at the video below for more information.
There are not a lot of strong El Ninos to look back at, so it’s hard to trust any of the long-range data right now. Past El Niño winters have been slow to start, so don’t be surprised if the Eastern Sierra sees below-average rain and snowfall this Fall.
The video below is new from Mike Discussing the most current El Nino Data. All the images in this section have been updated, with what’s the most recent as of 11-12-23.
>>>> 9-29-23 – To note, El Niño winters can be slow to start, so don’t be surprised if the Eastern Sierra sees below-average rain and snowfall this Fall.
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Author – Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog reports. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016.
Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth and Bishop, along with KTLA, AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.
Click Here to Learn More About the People Who Make MammothSnowman.com a Reality
