Mammoth Mountain Recreational Weather & Travel Forecast
April 26, 2024
Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discussion
December 7th, 2023 @ 10:30 AM – Good morning; look for mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures Friday into next Monday with light winds over Mammoth Mountain. No snow in sight over the next 5 days.
Snowmaking will get some long runs the next 48 hours and then it will be nights only in the longer range as a ridge of high pressure dominates the weather through Monday.
Pray for Snow, Snowman – PS read down the page for the longer range data and discussions.
Mammoth Mountain 10 Day Weather Outlook
** Weather Disclaimer: The Fantasy Outlooks are “Outlooks, Not Forecasts.” Some years, the wet patterns that appear in these longer range outlooks pan out; other times, the changes are always out in the fantasy period and never make it to the short-term forecast period. When all the ensemble models have agreement on wet or dry patterns, more often than not, they do seem to pan out more often then not.
December 7th, 2023 @ 9 AM – Good morning; over the weekend, a strong ridge of high pressure will move into the area, bringing up temperatures about 10 degrees above average.
Then, later on Monday, a very weak and dry low will quickly move through, dropping temperatures a bit along with some increased winds.
Guess what right after that, higher heights build into the area for more dry and warm days into days 8 and 9.
On day 10, there will be a weakening low-pressure system heading into the area from the west, and models show several inches of snow in the outlook.
Over the last month, we have seen this time and time again: right around days 9 and 10, we see precipitation coming our way, and then it weakens to almost nothing as days 9 and 10 enter the 5-day forecast period. Watching all that happen can get a bit frustrating and discouraging, to say the least.
Way out at day 10 we see a strong jet coming off Asia that might be the sign of the change us weather nerds have been waiting for and maybe not. 🙂
Mammoth Mountain 10-30 Day Fantasy Weather Outlook
12-7-2023 Updating at 10 AM – Taking a look at the long range I do see a strengthening jet coming off of Asia days 11 and beyond. Maybe that jet is the sign of the change many of us have been watching for.
The ECMWF EX ENS Control also shows a nice stormy pattern starting right after Christmas.
Weather patterns can change fast Folks. If you remember, a year ago Mammoth had a great base, but it was starting to look dry for an extended period well into January. And then just a few days later models showed a pattern change with a massive 3-week snow cycle with 20 inches of water content to work with.
So keep the faith that one day soon Mammoth will get a big dump of snow.
Pray for Snow, Snowman @mammothmountainsnowman
*The content on this Mammoth Weather Page is from Steve Taylor (Snowman),Ted S (CCM), and NWS Reno / Hanford / Vegas. Model Images from Weather Bell with on Hill WX data from the Mammoth Mountain Ski Patrol.
1100 Hours Out – ECMWF Extended Ensemble Mean
30 Day Snowfall from the ECMWF Ext. Ensemble Mean
ECMWF – Seasonal Mean Precipitation Outlook – 12-7-2023
This Model Updates Every 30 Days
ENSO – El Nino / La Nina Outlook – November 12th, 2023
El Niño Update: The current El Nino is in the strong category. How the event affects Mammoth Mountain and the Eastern Sierra this winter is uncertain. There are a lot of variables with this particular El Nino event that have not been seen during other strong events. Take a look at the video below for more information.
There are not a lot of strong El Ninos to look back at, so it’s hard to trust any of the long-range data right now. Past El Niño winters have been slow to start, so don’t be surprised if the Eastern Sierra sees below-average rain and snowfall this Fall.
The video below is new from Mike Discussing the most current El Nino Data. All the images in this section have been updated, with what’s the most recent as of 11-12-23.
>>>> 9-29-23 – To note, El Niño winters can be slow to start, so don’t be surprised if the Eastern Sierra sees below-average rain and snowfall this Fall.
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Author – Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog reports. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016.
Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth and Bishop, along with KTLA, AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.
Click Here to Learn More About the People Who Make MammothSnowman.com a Reality
