mammoth weather

Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discussion

December 16th, 2023 @ 4 PM Mammoth Weather 5-Day Forecast: A cut-off low will be affecting the weather as it evolves and moves towards the west coast over the next 24 hours. Look for high-elevation snow to develop on Monday and then continue at times possibly into Thursday. Cloudy Skies and windy conditions along with light snow and or rain showers will greet us on Monday morning.

Snow Levels will initially start down into the upper parts of town and then are expected to rise up to around the 8000 – 8500 foot level by Monday afternoon into Monday Night. By Tuesday morning snow levels should be down in all areas of Mammoth Lakes.

The QPF forecast through Wednesday is for 1 to 2 inches of water from 9000 feet up to the top. With it being so warm and no cold air support snow ratios with this system will be low and will limit overall accumulations.

Snowfall on Monday looks to be 1-2 inches on Monday around the Main Lodge with a rain/snow mix at Canyon and Eagle Lodges. Add in another possible 1-2 inches on Monday night with 2-4 inches possible on Tuesday.

From MC Coy Station up to the Top snowfall on Monday is forecast in the 3-5 inch range with 2-4 inches Monday night and 4-6 possible on Tuesday.

Hopefully, the snow levels pan out and are not higher than we were seeing on Friday’s data.

There might not be a lot of snow coming, but the base nature of what is forecast would get more runs open out on the hill. At this time I see low tide days with us for the next 6-10 days or not longer so just watch yourself out there and don’t use your new gear yet.

Forecast Details: If you’re going to be out on the hill this Sunday expect high clouds at times with mid-day temperatures in the low to mid-40s after a morning low of around 30. There will be SW winds blowing at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 MPH.

On Monday, expect developing snow showers with mid-day temperatures in the low 30s after a morning low of around 28. Winds will be out of the southwest at 35-45 MPH with gusts over the mid and upper mountain in the 65-85 MPH range.

Down in Mammoth Lakes on Sunday mid-day temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with night times lows in the mid to upper 20s. On Monday highs will be down into the mid-40s with rain showers in most parts of town. By Tuesday highs will be in the upper 30s with a mix of rain and snow possible below the 8000-foot level.

For Bishop mid-day temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s through Sunday with lows at night in the upper 20s to lower 30s. There is a chance of showers on Monday with highs in the upper 50s.

2023 12 16 14 47 14 goes sat nepac ir clean window 2765793 gfs ensemble all avg nepac t850 mslp prcp6hr 2771200 ecmwf deterministic california total snow kuchera 1702728000 1702738800 1703181600 20 gfs deterministic california total snow kuchera 1702749600 1702760400 1703181600 20

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Mammoth Mountain Long Range Outlook

** Weather Disclaimer: The Fantasy Outlooks are “Outlooks, Not Forecasts.” Some years, the wet patterns that appear in these longer range outlooks pan out; other times, the changes are always out in the fantasy period and never make it to the short-term forecast period. When all the ensemble models have agreement on wet or dry patterns, more often than not, they do seem to pan out more often then not.

December 14 – Yahoo, A change in the weather pattern is finally taking place. Confidence is moderate in changing to a wetter pattern the last couple of weeks of December.

As of this post, this pattern does not look like a major storm cycle that will shut everything down for days at a time. If that changes I will let you know ASAP.

Snowman

ecmwf weeklies avg nepac z500 anom 1702425600 1702425600 1704585600 40
gfs ensemble extended all avg nepac z500 anom 1702425600 1702425600 1704585600 40
ecmwf weeklies avg california snow 32day 5190400
gfs ensemble extended all avg california snow 35day 5449600
eps uv250 npac 50

ECMWF – Seasonal Mean Precipitation Outlook – 12-7-2023 

This Model Updates Every 30 Days

ENSO – El Nino / La Nina Outlook – November 12th, 2023

El Niño Update: The current El Nino is in the strong category. How the event affects Mammoth Mountain and the Eastern Sierra this winter is uncertain. There are a lot of variables with this particular El Nino event that have not been seen during other strong events. Take a look at the video below for more information.

ostia all globe sst anom 9660800

There are not a lot of strong El Ninos to look back at, so it’s hard to trust any of the long-range data right now. Past El Niño winters have been slow to start, so don’t be surprised if the Eastern Sierra sees below-average rain and snowfall this Fall. 

The video below is new from Mike Discussing the most current El Nino Data. All the images in this section have been updated, with what’s the most recent as of 11-12-23.

>>>> 9-29-23 – To note, El Niño winters can be slow to start, so don’t be surprised if the Eastern Sierra sees below-average rain and snowfall this Fall.

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Current Weather and Information Posts

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Author – Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill. 

Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog reports. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016. 

Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth and Bishop, along with KTLA, AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.

Click Here to Learn More About the People Who Make MammothSnowman.com a Reality