Long Range Snowfall Outlook for mid-October into mid November
10-8-22 @ 7:33 AM – The long range fantasy outlook looks more encouraging with every ensemble run from both the EPS and the GEFS. Add in the Seasonal EPS run that came out a couple days ago and the card deck seem to be stacked in our favor for some much needed snowfall in November.
At this point we all need to beware that this is an OUTLOOK not a forecast. This will be a good test to see if this will be a season where the long range always looks good for snowfall and then it disappears in the sort range forecast period.
Personally I have got a good feeling about the upcoming season regarding the snow conditions for skiing and snowboard on Mammoth Mountain. Time will tell… 🙂
Here is the EPS Seasonal November Monthly Forecast and the forecast chart for the first 3 months of the season.
GEFS and EPS Long Range Data
The EPS Ensemble C run (shown below) from 10-6 is starting to pick up on what the EPS Seasonal Model is showing for November. While you can’t forecast QPF out this far, the model is showing moderate amounts of snowfall in the outlook trend.
45 Day Snowfall Outlook – EPS 45 Precip
What’s really encouraging is the GEFS Ensembles going out just over 800 hours are also picking up on some decent snowfall for early November. At this point while confidence is low in any out come the trend is in our favor.
GEFS 800 Precip
Both of these ensemble runs show an outcome that would allow top to bottom skiing possibly as early as mid November.
Let’s hope and pray for a November to Remember.
Now it’s the waiting game… Snowman
