** Weather Disclaimer: The Fantasy Outlooks are “Outlooks, Not Forecasts.” Some years, the wet patterns that appear in these longer-range outlooks pan out; other times, the changes are always out in the fantasy period and never make it to the short-term forecast period. When all the ensemble models have agreement on wet or dry patterns, more often than not, they do seem to pan out more often than not.

12-27-2023 @ 9:20 AM – Looking at the longer-range data the last few days, I still don’t see any significant pattern changes or one-hit miracle base storms in the offering over the next two weeks and beyond. 

Over the last few months, we’ve discussed a possible back-ended winter starting around the Christmas holiday. Models should be showing the signs of that starting change now. However, You still won’t find a strong southern El Niño Jet developing into California on long-range ensemble models.

So, where in the world do we find any weather hope for some base snow at this point?

Longer-range models bring several chances for possible moderate snowfall over the next month. The ECMWF Weekly Mean, our preferred ensemble model, has several feet of snowfall over the next 30-day period.  

Putting all the hype aside, the reality is we are now in a low-tide season. I have lived through many of these, and during almost all of them, at some point, we get a decent storm or storm cycle that lays down some decent base.

If you look at the closing days over the years, there is only one season that the Mountain closed in mid-May. During all the other low snowfall years, the Mountain still got enough snowfall to allow for skiing and riding until Memorial Day and often beyond.

While we wait for snow, Mammoth Mountain has done a great job with the 1-2 feet of natural snow that has fallen by supplementing with snowmaking. My advice is if you need to make some turns, get some of your old gear tuned up, then get out there. Ensure to keep in ski or ride shape for when the natural snowfall does appear.

Staying Forever Hope full for a big dump base snow and wind buff on Mammoth Mountain, Snowman.

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Below is the ECMWF Ensemble Mean going out 32 days.

32-Day Snowfall Chart from the ECMWF Ensemble Mean

Below is the GEFS Ensemble Mean going out 32 days

32-Day Snowfall Chart from the GEFS Ensemble Mean

The ECMWF Weekly Ensemble mean has the entire Sierra Range below-average precipitation for the next 30 days. That sure is a scary thought. Hopefully, there will be a flip in the long-range pattern soon.