2-20-2024 @ 8 AM – Good morning; the last system turned out to be a bit of a bust as most models once again overforecasted the amount of snowfall and precipitation the area would receive.

The good old ECM model had it right all along, with the GFS and the High-Resolution models way over forecasting how much snowfall the area would pick up. The good news is that Mammoth Mountain did pick up around 18-22+ inches of new base, with some lighter powder falling at the end of the storm.

Moving forward, there is one more system that will bring snow to the area late on Wednesday into very early Thursday morning. That one looks to bring in 3-6 inches of fresh snow from Main Lodge to the top. Down in lower elevations such as Mammoth Lakes and 395, we are not expecting more than a dusting to an inch of fresh snow at this point in time.

Thursday into Saturday looks to be clear as a cut-off low forms well off the coast. The COL will start to affect the Mountain sometime on Sunday with increasing winds and clouds. Snow Showers could develop later in the day and possibly continue out to day 8 next Tuesday.

Since that system is a cut-off low, confidence in how much snow Mammoth Mountain could pick up is so low we won’t even mention any possible totals. Keep in mind that patterns tend to repeat themselves, and over this winter, most of these COL’s have taken a path right into Southern California, making them coastal huggers and leaving the Eastern Sierra with not much precipitation.

Long-range models, if you want to roll the dice and look at them, show several feet of snowfall over the next 30 to 45 days. The ECM weeklies show about 60 inches of snow over that time frame.

As of 2-5-24, Mammoth Pass sits at 75% of the average for the date and 54% of the April 1st average. I do not see any pattern right now that will take those amounts up to 100%. There should be an update later today as SWP updates these numbers on Tuesdays.

My personal outlook with this snowpack is there should be enough snow to keep lifts running out of Main into the Memorial Day weekend. 

Pray for Snow, Snowman Out…