2-18-2024 @ 9 AM – Here is an update on the incoming storm system. Operational and Ensemble Models have backed off on their QPF forecasted amounts, while the higher resolution models hold onto double the amount of QPF this morning.

The EU model has 2.28, the GFS 3.07 while the HRRR and NAM Runs this morning have 6 inches of QPF. The ECM Ensemble has 1.68, and the GEFS is at 3.58. As Ted mentioned on the Powder Forecast on Friday, there was lower confidence at that time on the QPF that was showing up.

As of this morning, the snowfall amounts forecasted for the Lower Mountain and around Mammoth Lakes are in the 1-2 foot range. From Main Lodge up to the Top, snowfall amounts are forecasted to be in the 2-4 foot range. Models this season have been hyping up their QPF forecast only to lower them as the event draws near.

Snow Levels tonight will start around the 7500-foot level and then drop to around the 7000-7300-foot level on Monday. By Monday evening, snow levels will be coming down to the 6300-6500 foot levels and then, after midnight, down to around the 5500 foot level. Crowley Lake is at 6800 feet, with the Mammoth Airport at 7200, the lower part of Mammoth Lakes at 7800 feet, and the Main Lodge sits at 8900 feet.

If you’re heading to the hill today, expect clearing skies early with increasing clouds again in the afternoon. Mid-day temperatures will be in the lower to mid-30s around the Main Lodge. The wind will be out of the southwest wind, 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35-55+ mph.

Tonight, the snowfall will turn moderate to heavy at times, with 10-18 inches possible from Main Lodge to the Top by Monday Morning. Snowfall ratios look to be in the 8-1 to 10-1 range overnight.

On Monday, expect more moderate to heavy snowfall at times with mid temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. The wind will be out of the southwest at 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35-55+ mph. Snowfall accumulations look to be in the 10-18 inch range on Monday, with snowfall ratios around 10-1.