Today’s Forecast & Discussion
Monday, September 26th, 2022 @ 1:45 PM – High pressure is in control today and will be replaced by some weak troughing moving thru the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Expect temperatures to come down 3-5 degrees over the next few days. Winds will be light out of the SW over this time frame and conditions will remain dry.
For Friday into the weekend temperatures rebound just a few degrees under clear blue skies with light winds.
Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast
For today expect a few clouds around especially south of Mammoth Mountain. Then into Thursday, expect sunny skies. Resort level highs at 8900 feet (Main Lodge and the Mammoth Lakes Basin) will be in the low to mid-60s by mid-day, with overnight lows into the low 40s.
Winds will be out of the SW @ 5-10 MPH with gusts in the 15-20 MPH range.
Mammoth Lakes Weather Forecast
For today into Thursday, expect sunny skies. Highs will be in the low to mid-70s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s. Winds will be out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph at times.
If you’re venturing to Bishop expect clear skies with highs in the mid to upper 80s into Thursday with nighttime lows in the mid to upper 40s.
Here are the links to the specific highs, lows, and wind speeds for many of the major recreation points in the Eastern Sierra: Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge, Top of Mammoth Mountain, Mammoth Lakes, June Lake, Crowley Lake, Toms Place, Rock Creek Lake, Bishop & Mill Pond, South Lake.
Please Note: Fire Restrictions are in place on all National Forest Service and BLM Lands in the Eastern Sierra.
Current Satellite View
Mammoth Mountain 10 Day Weather Outlook & Long Range Discussion
Monday, September 26th, 2022 @ 1:50 PM – The Weather Story:
The early Fall roller coaster ride that goes from a moderate ridge to weak troughing coming through the area will continue over the next 10 days.
Models have been teasing us with some possible light showers just beyond that time frame, but confidence is low in that outcome right now.
Overall the next 10 days look to offer up clear skies with dry conditions and average temperatures for this time of year. If you’re a local enjoy it while it lasts, the cold and snowy weather is not that far out now.
For you travelers the upcoming mid week and weekend is looking like a great time to be here in Mammoth Lakes.
Snowman – The Next 10 Day and Longer Range Outlook will be posted mid week.
Here is the EPS Ensemble Model
EPS – 24 Hour Precipitation
EPS – Temperature Anomaly Ensemble Mean
Long Range Snowfall & Snowmaking Outlook for mid October into early November
9-26-22 @ 2:18 PM – Now that we are at the end of September we start to look at the Mid October to early November time frame data to see what might be trending our way.
Of course we are looking for possible snowfall and cold temperature trends for snowmaking.
This is really longer range data so you’re not looking for a forecast just what the weather trends appear to be for that time period.
What can also throw off the data is possibly Typhoon remnants re-curving out in to the flow that eventually effects the weather on the west coast.
You saw that happen a week ago, patterns like to repeat so maybe it will happen again with a direct hit for our area this time.
Looking at the date this morning, the more reliable EPS model has the mountain getting a dusting to a couple inches of snow with several cold nights during the October 17 to 27th time period.
That’s a good trend to be seeing. The GEFS ensembles models also agree with that solution.
The next 10 days after that the ensemble mean shows cold air and more lightly accumulating snowfall.
That would be great as this is the critical period to starting build base for the scheduled Opener on November 11.
Again these are trends in what we call the fantasy outlook period. They give us something to talk about while we wait. I been watching all this for years so let’s get it posted so you can see it too.
Look for more Mammoth WX updates now that we are moving into the countdown period for snowfall and the snowmaking season.
November into March Mammoth Weather Trends
9-7-22 @ 9:12 AM – A weak La Nina will be gaining some strength into late Fall and then is forecast to start to weaken and then go neutral sometime by late December into early February.
How this all plays out for winter is still up in the air. The good news from what we are seeing right now is the longest-range models are not day in and day out dry like we were seeing at this time last year.
An updated run of the EPS Seasonal is now out and posted below. The Mammoth Mountain area on these updates would be in for an average year if what we see below came to fruition.
Again long range data is not a forecast just an outlook, I personally like to look at all the data and see what the trends are.
ENSO - La Nina & El Nino
Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather Posts
Who Are We?
Steve Taylor – Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog report. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016.
Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth, along with AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.
Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast and Long Range Outlook