Mammoth Weather Forecast & Discussion

>>>>> 10-13-22 @ 10 AM – Working on a full update, check back at Noon today! Pray for Snow

Sunday, October 9th at 7:28 AM – The Mammoth Weather Story…

For this Sunday into Monday, you can expect clear skies with some afternoon clouds and a 10-20% chance of scattered rain showers with higher elevation snow above 10,500 feet possible.

There could be a slight dusting of snow from 11,000 feet up, which would include the top of Mammoth Mountain.

Beyond Monday, coolers temperatures will prevail the rest of the week before the next ridges move in and the area warms up a bit next weekend. The next chance for a change in the pattern will be the last week of October. 

Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast:

Sunday into Monday expect a 10-20% chance of rain or snow with the snow level above 10,500 feet. On Sunday Resort level highs at 8900 feet (Main Lodge and the Mammoth Lakes Basin) will be in the low to mid-60s by mid-day, with overnight lows into the low 40s. For the upcoming week, highs are looking to be in the 50s with overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds will be out of the SW @ 5-10 MPH.

Mammoth Lakes Weather Forecast

Sunday into Monday expect a 10-20% chance of rain.  On Sunday highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with overnight lows in the 40s. Winds will be out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph at times. For the upcoming week, highs are looking to be in the low to mid-60s with overnight lows also in the upper 30s to low 40s.

If you’re venturing to Bishop expect clear skies with highs in the low to mid-80s with nighttime lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Here are the links to the specific highs, lows, and wind speeds for many of the major recreation points in the Eastern Sierra: Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge, Top of Mammoth Mountain, Mammoth Lakes, June Lake, Crowley Lake, Toms Place, Rock Creek Lake, Bishop & Mill Pond, South Lake. 

Mammoth WeatherGuy Powder Outlooks will be back in early November. Here is the link to all Teds past posts.

Read down the page for all the longer-range outlooks for snow this November and the Winter of 2023. If you have questions about the weather or weather-related chat use our Weather forum.

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Mammoth Mountain 10 Day Weather Outlook & Long Range Discussion

10-9-22 @ 7:33 AM – The 10-Day Mammoth Weather Story:

Ridging will continue to rule our weather over the 10 day period. You expect above normal highs, light winds and dry conditions.

This is the perfect time of year for this calm and dry weather, let’s save the wet stuff for a few more weeks when it’s more favorable to get snow and not rain.

If you’re into Fall Colors the weather these next two weeks will be perfect for viewing. Remember if you want to see the leaves glow you have to have the sun behind the tree and shining in your face.

 

By next Monday a cut off low well to our south will pump enough moisture our way that Mammoth Mountain and the Eastern Sierra high country could see some cloud build-ups into Tuesday. There is even a slight chance of a rain shower.

 

Snowman

Here is the EPS Ensemble Model going out 10 days.

EPS – 24 Hour Precipitation

EPS – Temperature Anomaly Ensemble Mean

Long Range Snowfall Outlook for mid-October into mid November

10-8-22 @ 7:33 AM – The long range fantasy outlook looks more encouraging with every ensemble run from both the EPS and the GEFS. Add in the Seasonal EPS run that came out a couple days ago and the card deck seem to be stacked in our favor for some much needed snowfall in November.

At this point we all need to beware that this is an OUTLOOK not a forecast. This will be a good test to see if this will be a season where the long range always looks good for snowfall and then it disappears in the sort range forecast period.

Personally I have got a good feeling about the upcoming season regarding the snow conditions for skiing and snowboard on Mammoth Mountain. Time will tell… 🙂

Here is the EPS Seasonal November Monthly Forecast and the forecast chart for the first 3 months of the season.


seas5_qpfa_3mon_conus_NDJ
seas5_qpfa_3mon_conus_NDJ

GEFS and EPS Long Range Data

The EPS Ensemble C run (shown below) from 10-6 is starting to pick up on what the EPS Seasonal Model is showing for November. While you can’t forecast QPF out this far, the model is showing moderate amounts of snowfall in the outlook trend.

45 Day Snowfall Outlook – EPS 45 Precip

What’s really encouraging is the GEFS Ensembles going out just over 800 hours are also picking up on some decent snowfall for early November. At this point while confidence is low in any out come the trend is in our favor.

GEFS 800 PrecipBoth of these ensemble runs show an outcome that would allow top to bottom skiing possibly as early as mid November.

Let’s hope and pray for a November to Remember.

Now it’s the waiting game… Snowman

November into March Mammoth Weather Trends

10-5-2022 @ 11 AM – The new run of the EPS Seasonal is out and it continues to show the trend of an average to above-average winter for snowfall. Each run has been getting a bit wetter and this month’s run is the best looking yet.

Of course, now it has to pan out over the next 6 months and this data is no guarantee Mammoth Mountain will get dumped on. Last year at this time the only wet month the seasonal EPS had on this date was December and the rest showed red and dark brown drought colors.

So good vibes moving forward as we start the snow and cold air watch now.

Snowman

ENSO - La Nina & El Nino

eastern_sierra_precip_conditions5-3-22-DWP

Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather Posts

Who Are We?

Steve Taylor – Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill. 

Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog report. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016. 

Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth, along with AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.

Ted Schlaepfer – Mammoth WeatherGuy – The Powder Forecast – Posted Tuesday and Fridays at 5 PM November into Mid May. These forecasts are now responsible for many people getting multiple powder days on Mammoth Mountain over the years.  

Ted’s Bio: Ted has been a full-time Meteorologist (CCM) for the past 25+ years. He has always been fascinated with the weather,” skiing was just a natural extension of my love for snow and rain. I started skiing at age 5,  first discovered Mammoth in 1979 as a youth, and have been a regular visitor since the late ’80s.”.

Here is the link to The WeatherGuys Powder Forecast Page. 

Click Here to Learn More About the People Who Make MammothSnowman.com a Reality