Mammoth Mountain & Eastern Sierra Weather Forecast

Mammoth Mountain & Eastern Sierra Weather Forecast

Footloose Sports Bike Shop - 760-934-2400
Footloose Sports Bike Shop – 760-934-2400

Mammoth Mountain & Eastern Sierra Recreational Weather Forecast – Tuesday, September 21st, 2021 @ 5:15 PM

Good afternoon everyone, checking the window cast this evening there is haze in the high country again and it’s slowly working its way down to Round Valley and Bishop. 

The past 3 days have been great with the clear skies, not many people around so you can enjoy some solitude up here. 

Taking a look at local conditions, yesterday at the top of Mammoth Mountain there was a high of 51 and today the high reached 55 with a low of 43 at 1 am. Today there was a peak wind gust at 11,053 feet of 17 MPH out of the SW.

In Mammoth Lakes, the temperature today peaked at 72 degrees with a low of 38 degrees this morning. There was a peak wind gust today of 10 MPH out of the E.

Down in Bishop, there was a temperature of 88 degrees with a low of 54 degrees this morning. There was a peak wind gust of 15 MPH out of the SSE.

Temperatures: Mammoth Lakes will be in the low 70s on Wednesday and Thursday with overnight lows in the low to mid-40s. Down in Bishop and the Round Valley areas highs are expected in the upper 80s to very low 90s with lows in the mid-50s. 

Winds: Wednesday it will be a bit windy at times with a southwest wind of 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Thursday look for a Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast. 

By Friday expect a Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. NE winds will push the haze and smoke to our west.

Precipitation: There is a chance of some isolated thunderstorms with light rain under storms that are do form on Sunday. Snow Levels are around 11,800 to 12,300 feet. This is all from the cut of low off the So Cal coast. It’s cut off so it’s a woe to forecast, where it goes nobody knows for sure.

Models over the weekend had the low in a position that would bring some good rain in and now that solution is off the table. 

I have seen setups like this in September where I went to bed expecting it to be dry the next day and overnight the low meanders into just the right spot and then boom you wake up to rain the next morning. More updates to come on this one…

Here are the links to the local NWS Forecasts for Main Lodge & the Mammoth Lakes BasinMammoth LakesJune LakeCrowley Lake, and Bishop.

Fire and Smoke Forecast: With the haze moving back in now keeping checking AQI levels if you’re in the area. The HRRR Smoke model has some high-end AQI levels over the next 24 hours and then they back off and the air looks to clear out again by mid-day on Thursday into at least Friday. 

Current Air Quality Image

Todays Smoke Location – Just to the West of Mammoth and the Eastern Sierra
By Wednesday AM Mammoth has high AQI Levels with the lower elevations in the moderate range.
By mid-Day Wednesday all areas will have bad Air Quality. Not sure I by into it being as bad as the model is showing. By 2 AM the bad smoke does start to clear the Eastern Sierra.

Today's Weather Story & the Weekend Outlook

Updated 9-21-21 @ 6 PM The rain solutions we talked about on Monday are already off the table and then ha now isolated thunderstorms are back in the weekend outlook. With these cut-off lows, you need to be within 12 hours of the event before you can have hope the rain chances will come true. There are still several days for this to play out. I am hoping and praying that we at least get some decent rain over the fires to our south. Will take a look at the pattern again on Wednesday afternoon. Snowman  

 

Mammoth Mountain 6-10 Day Weather Outlook

Mammoth Mountain 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook

 

 

Fantasy Long Range Outlook:

ECMWF Seasonal Ensemble Mean – Monthly Update 9-5-2021

Satellite Images

NOAA GOES 17 Full Pacific Satellite View
NOAA GOES 17 Full Pacific Satellite View
Goes 17 West Coast Satellite View
Goes 17 West Coast Satellite View

Mammoth Mountain 6-10 Day Weather Outlook

Mammoth Mountain 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook

Mammoth Mountain 10-14 Day Temperature Outlook

Mammoth Mountain 10-14 Day Precipitation Outlook

PNA Forecast Chart
PNA Forecast Chart
Arctic Oscillation Forecast
Arctic Oscillation Forecast

The MOJO Outlook

MOJO - NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (NCPE)
MOJO – NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (NCPE)
MOJO - NCEP Global Bias-Corrected Ensemble Forecast System (NCPB)
MOJO – NCEP Global Bias-Corrected Ensemble Forecast System (NCPB)
MOJO - Climate Forecast System (NCFS)
MOJO – Climate Forecast System (NCFS)
MOJO - ECMWF Forecasts System (ECMF)
MOJO – ECMWF Forecasts System (ECMF)
MOJO - CMET Canadian Forecast
MOJO – CMET Canadian Forecast

MJO Phase and Temperatures

Mojo Temperature Composites (OND)
Mojo Temperature Composites (OND)
Mojo Temperature Composites (NDJ)
Mojo Temperature Composites (NDJ)
Mojo Temperature Composites (DJF)
Mojo Temperature Composites (DJF)
Mojo Temperature Composites (JFM)
Mojo Temperature Composites (JFM)

MJO Phase and Precipitation

Mojo Temperature Composites (OND)
Mojo Temperature Composites (OND)
Mojo Precipitation Composites (NDJ)
Mojo Precipitation Composites (NDJ)
Mojo Precipitation Composites (DJF)
Mojo Precipitation Composites (DJF)
Mojo Precipitation Composites (JFM)
Mojo Precipitation Composites (JFM)

Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather Posts

Who Are We?

Steve Taylor – Mammoth Snowman Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill. 

Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog report. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016. 

Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth, along with AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.

Ted Schlaepfer – Mammoth WeatherGuy – The Powder Forecast – Posted Tuesday and Fridays at 5 PM November into Mid May. These forecasts are now responsible for many people getting multiple powder days on Mammoth Mountain over the years.  

Ted’s Bio: Ted has been a full-time Meteorologist (CCM) for the past 25+ years. He has always been fascinated with the weather,” skiing was just a natural extension of my love for snow and rain. I started skiing at age 5,  first discovered Mammoth in 1979 as a youth, and have been a regular visitor since the late ’80s.”.

Here is the link to The WeatherGuys Powder Forecast Page. 

Click Here to Learn More About the People Who Make MammothSnowman.com a Reality